Murphy's Law

The  law requires election posters to be removed within a week of polling. However given that the government has threatened a general election in the middle of the Leopardstown if later this week the Dail votes no confidence in Eoghan Murphy suggests that many candidates may be wondering should they remove the posters at all?

One candidate who’s already made her views clear on Eoghan Murphy is Fine Gael’s Verona Murphy. It’s a case of “Let them eat cake”. But the curious scenario where Verona will be in a position of having to vote confidence in the other Murphy is receding fast.

It’s case of Murphy’s Law, anything that could go wrong did go wrong. In the end it was Fine Gael voters who deprogrammed her. Verona Murphy  thought she could appeal beyond her own base to attract a Peter Casey vote. In the end she turned off the very people who asked her to run in the first place. She got a rural vote but her urban middle class vote either stayed at home or went elsewhere.

George Lawlor has been the main beneficiary of the collapse in her base. Fianna Fail’s Malcolm Byrne is set to top the poll. Tallies show its not so much about Labour versus Fianna Fail more North Wexford against South Wexford. The high turn out in rural South Wexford compared to the urban Enniscorthy sets up an interesting side competition between Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen and Aontú’s Jim Codd. The Green surge didn’t come beyond the pale however they still comfortably poll ahead of the Solidarity/People Before /Profit candidate.

I visualise the 1^st count will show that there are 3 groups of candidates; O’Neill, Keddy and Blackmore who’ll be eliminated quickly. The next group contains Dubsky, Codd and Mythen.  Mythen is about 1,000 votes ahead of Codd but the margin could get closer as we move along.

Eventually there are 3 candidates who’ll be at the business end of the day. Lawlor is marginally behind Murphy. Murphy gained a lot of votes in Gorey as well as New Ross. It’s not a traditional FG vote it’s a vote that was brought to her by her far right views. Gorey is a place which has a younger age profile than the rest of the constituency. Is it the case that younger voters may be more receptive to right wing values?

Having looked at some votes, Murphy’s preferences tend towards George Lawlor. If George Lawlor passes Verona Murphy out he has a better chance of closing the gap on Byrne than Murphy has.

It’ll be an interesting evening!

Bluffers guide to the Wexford Bye election

With 3 days to go and still more politicking to do, lets park the issues and look at the actual election. Let’s flag where early indications may come from as to who may eventually win.

It is too late to get on the register, your polling card has been sent however a possession of a polling card is not essential in order to vote. If you voted in the local elections you’ll know where your polling station is. Simply return there and ask to vote but bring ID just in case.

There is only 1 ballot paper this time and it is a simple case of voting No 1 for the person who you think is best for the job and continuing with your preference vote for other candidates who you feel merit support.

Voting is between 7AM and 10PM this Friday, November 28^th. Ballot boxes will be collected and brought to the count centre at St Josephs Club, Bishopswater. Counting will commence at 9AM on Saturday morning.

So what may happen? Given that turn out may be much lower than the local elections and that there is just one ballot paper to count it is reasonable to expect a tally before lunchtime. Wexford has about 110,000 registered voters. A first count will be delivered in the early afternoon and then the real drama will start.  A 40% turn out (and that depending on weather may be optimistic) will suggest a quota close to 22,000. Bye elections rarely see the winner elected  exceeding the quota. There will be plenty of plumbers so candidates are looking to transfers from lower candidates. So percentage performance may be  better indicator of how candidates are performing than actual votes.

But the turnout may well be different around the county. Malcolm Byrne and George Lawlor both have a strong record in their home towns and its certain that an above average  turn out in their home basis will set them both up nicely. This gives them an advantage over Verona Murphy or Johnny Mythen as Wexford and Gorey have larger populations.

Based on percentage share from last May the baseline support for each party is

FF 30%     FG 25%      Labour 9%      SF 8%       Aontú 2%.  

Other parties and Independents 25%. 

Looking at the baseline vote and the absence of independents may explain some candidates strategy. How do you appeal to the independent vote which in Wexford is more rural and conservative than left wing. In the absence of an independent candidate that block of votes can if it moves in one direction give the recipient of those votes a huge boost.

It may however be more likely that the independent voters vote for a local candidate and may be more likely to revert to a local candidate than behave like a herd. If that is the case I’d expect geography to hugely influence how people vote. Jim Codd of Aontú can on that basis expect a large vote from South Wexford. New Ross elected 2 independents. Its fair to expect that Verona Murphy is well placed to get a fair share of their support while Malcolm Byrne can expect those votes from Mary Farrell in Kilmuckridge, while George Lawlor may see Leonard Kelly and to a lesser extent  Davy Hynes support come his way at the ballot box.

So as to what I expect may happen? Ultimately it is all down to transfers. Where the voters put their second and subsequent preferences will decide who gets the seat. It would not surprise me if Jim Codd and Johnny Mythen   were neck and neck. I would not rule a recount if there was the likelihood of an elimination of either at the others expense.

Verona Murphy will find out that few of her views resonate with Fine Gael supporters. That’s not to suggest she’ll tank. She’ll build in rural Wexford on the support that Peter Casey won, but beyond that she won’t attract transfers. She’ll pick up transfers from 3 other right wing candidates, but it won’t be enough.

By Saturday evening expect it to be down to the last two; Long time front runner Malcolm Byrne and Labour’s George Lawlor is coming up on the rails.

With Labour’s other candidates performing well in the other contests, the jibe that Labour is dead is well and truly dead itself.  I expect it to be a close run thing.

Who’ll be the big loser? Independents may well see support seep away for the lack of an independent to vote for.  The challenge at any future election is to get that vote back. It’s easier said than done given that the general election may be upon us sooner rather than later.

Posters up

The writ has been moved, the order for polling has been signed and now its time to get visual. Wexford’s bye election picked up a gear as candidates posters (well some of them) were hung around a lamp post on a wet Thursday night.

Wexford town has already posters for Labour’s George Lawlor and Fine Gael’s Veronica Murphy. However the well oiled political machine better know as Fianna Fail seem to be still in neutral in this part of the constituency. It seems that Fianna Fail Cumann members in the south of the county may well be holding firm in their threat not to canvas as a result of the ongoing political row within Fianna Fail.

Fianna Fail , Labour and Sinn Fein put up and remove their own posters. Fine Gael are resourced to have their own erected and removed professionally, yes it appears there is someone who earns his crust hanging posters from a lamp post. So we await the Fianna Fail posters any day soon.

The real talking point is what has happened to the independent candidates for the independent seat that is up for grabs? We have 8 Non Party councillors yet none seem to be interested in running. In the 2016 we had 5 independents and in 2011 we had 4. Has the air in Wexford run out of independent support? The only independent in the race is a Kilkenny based extreme right winger. I can’t see her getting more than a handful of votes.  There were suggestions that one of Wallaces family or newly elected councillor Pat Barden may run but that doesn’t seem to be the case now.

The listed candidates are Malcom Byrne FF, Jim Codd  Aontú, Karin Dubsky Green Party, George Lawlor Labour, Veronica Murphy Fine Gael,  Johnny Mythen SF and Meliosa O’Neill IFP. Or lets look on it from the point of Geography, 2 candidates from Wexford and Gorey and one from Enniscorthy and New Ross with a foreigner from Kilkenny.  

Few issues have emerged other than the future of Rosslare, the funding for mental health services and the prospect for a university based in the south east. Important issues which have featured locally in the last 5 years. Brexit has disappeared off the agenda.

With little media focus on the bye election so far there is every likelihood that the turn out will be low. That’s not to say that there is something going on, there is.

Karin Dubsky will be expected to pick up on the green surge. Aontú’s Jim Codd may well continue to chip away at Sinn Fein’s vote.  FF voters disillusioned with the perception that Lisa McDonald was mistreated may also give him the nod. Not enough to put him into serious contention but certainly enough to put him ahead of Dubsky. Then that leaves Sinn Fein hoping to be ahead of Dubsky and Codd and that they may benefit from transfers.  That brings us to Veronica Murphy. She’ll be looking for a good turn out in New Ross which is traditionally a strong Fianna Fail area . and she may find transfers harder to pick up than she thinks.

Which leaves George Lawlor and Malcolm Byrne. It will all depend on how their respective areas may poll. Gorey is a district from where many workers often commute to work, the long drive home in the dark on Black Friday with the build up to the Toy Show may just keep some voters at home especially if the weather is cold or wet in the evening. Gorey’s population is younger than Wexford’s. Leaving the kids at home to vote on a big night may be a huge ask in the run in to Christmas. I’m certain that nobody will vote after 9pm.

This election may well spring a surprise when people expect it least because  at a general election we elect a government, at a bye election we elect a TD. The winner may well come from Wexford District.