Tuesday, 26 November 2019

Bluffers guide to the Wexford Bye election


With 3 days to go and still more politicking to do, lets park the issues and look at the actual election. Let’s flag where early indications may come from as to who may eventually win.
It is too late to get on the register, your polling card has been sent however a possession of a polling card is not essential in order to vote. If you voted in the local elections you’ll know where your polling station is. Simply return there and ask to vote but bring ID just in case.
There is only 1 ballot paper this time and it is a simple case of voting No 1 for the person who you think is best for the job and continuing with your preference vote for other candidates who you feel merit support.
Voting is between 7AM and 10PM this Friday, November 28th. Ballot boxes will be collected and brought to the count centre at St Josephs Club, Bishopswater. Counting will commence at 9AM on Saturday morning.
So what may happen? Given that turn out may be much lower than the local elections and that there is just one ballot paper to count it is reasonable to expect a tally before lunchtime. Wexford has about 110,000 registered voters. A first count will be delivered in the early afternoon and then the real drama will start.  A 40% turn out (and that depending on weather may be optimistic) will suggest a quota close to 22,000. Bye elections rarely see the winner elected  exceeding the quota. There will be plenty of plumbers so candidates are looking to transfers from lower candidates. So percentage performance may be  better indicator of how candidates are performing than actual votes.
But the turnout may well be different around the county. Malcolm Byrne and George Lawlor both have a strong record in their home towns and its certain that an above average  turn out in their home basis will set them both up nicely. This gives them an advantage over Verona Murphy or Johnny Mythen as Wexford and Gorey have larger populations.
Based on percentage share from last May the baseline support for each party is

FF 30%     FG 25%      Labour 9%      SF 8%       Aontú 2%.  
Other parties and Independents 25%. 

Looking at the baseline vote and the absence of independents may explain some candidates strategy. How do you appeal to the independent vote which in Wexford is more rural and conservative than left wing. In the absence of an independent candidate that block of votes can if it moves in one direction give the recipient of those votes a huge boost.
It may however be more likely that the independent voters vote for a local candidate and may be more likely to revert to a local candidate than behave like a herd. If that is the case I’d expect geography to hugely influence how people vote. Jim Codd of Aontú can on that basis expect a large vote from South Wexford. New Ross elected 2 independents. Its fair to expect that Verona Murphy is well placed to get a fair share of their support while Malcolm Byrne can expect those votes from Mary Farrell in Kilmuckridge, while George Lawlor may see Leonard Kelly and to a lesser extent  Davy Hynes support come his way at the ballot box.
So as to what I expect may happen? Ultimately it is all down to transfers. Where the voters put their second and subsequent preferences will decide who gets the seat. It would not surprise me if Jim Codd and Johnny Mythen   were neck and neck. I would not rule a recount if there was the likelihood of an elimination of either at the others expense.
Verona Murphy will find out that few of her views resonate with Fine Gael supporters. That’s not to suggest she’ll tank. She’ll build in rural Wexford on the support that Peter Casey won, but beyond that she won’t attract transfers. She’ll pick up transfers from 3 other right wing candidates, but it won’t be enough.
By Saturday evening expect it to be down to the last two; Long time front runner Malcolm Byrne and Labour’s George Lawlor is coming up on the rails.
With Labour’s other candidates performing well in the other contests, the jibe that Labour is dead is well and truly dead itself.  I expect it to be a close run thing.
Who’ll be the big loser? Independents may well see support seep away for the lack of an independent to vote for.  The challenge at any future election is to get that vote back. It’s easier said than done given that the general election may be upon us sooner rather than later.

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