One for the Road!

Back in the 80’s when times were tough there was the phenomena of moving statues.  In rural areas late at night people gathered under the light of a full moon to gaze as religious statues were reputed to move.  I must admit to being a bit of a cynic about that. 

So when Fianna Fail’s Aoife Byrne’s trailer with a 8X4 image attached moved last week on the night of the full moon, you can understand why I scratch what little of my hair has survived since the original statues moved 3 decades ago.  My hairdresser rang asking for reassurance that she’ll still have a job after polling day   

Whatever the reason, abandoning a trailer on a dangerous stretch of road is a fool hardy thing. It is unlikely to be a factor that will rank highly in voter’s minds come polling day and the leprechaun responsible might well have brought more attention than inconvenience on the candidate by their actions.  So long as that is all and nobody was injured.

Elsewhere the entry of Paul O’Hanlon to the race will bring a bit of colour to the campaign.  As the weather outside is not the best we may have to wait a little to see his tee shirt, Paul will campaign in the way that only Paul knows best.  Paul says he’s pro Israel and anti-immigration.  Perhaps Paul may at some stage reflect on the reality that Israel was built up by immigrants.  Interestingly while Paul insists that only Irish born people have the right to live here he also lets slip that he qualifies for UK citizenship.  Paul may yet launch his campaign in Whites Hotel.

Someone who did launch a campaign in Whites Hotel was Gerry Adams. He was here to launch John Mythen’s campaign and it was well attended but minds were elsewhere. The recent sudden illness of Anthony Kelly deprived the launch of their popular councillor as he recovered in hospital. Gerry Adams had enough baggage to strain the hotel porter’s back as they made their way to the first floor venue for the meeting. Thankfully from a Sinn Fein point of view there are many who will overlook this reality on polling day.  

Sinn Fein got a sizeable crowd for the launch but by far the biggest crowd of the week end gathered not to protest at water charges but to watch Brendan Howlin open St Mary’s GAA Clubhouse and pitch at Maudlintown.  Long awaited, now in place and supported by funding to disadvantaged areas.  What’s often forgotten is that Wexford still has pockets of disadvantage on a par with major cities in the country.  Investing in social infrastructure is the only way to close that gap. 

Elections are media events as much as they are about voters.  Any candidate hoping to impress will need to get their message across in local media.  Regional papers, broadcasters and free sheets look forward to extra revenue that elections bring.  So too do printers, market researchers, outdoor advertisers because running in any election is expensive, 

Add to that the cost of diesel, paying for meals for supporters when you are out for a day canvasing, cost of tickets to support raffles and fund raisers which candidates like to be associated with, phone bills for following up queries that arise on the doorstep.  Candidates are supposed to have deep pockets.  Whether they do or not, it’s not the point. It is what people believe so it’s not for the faint hearted and when the canvas is over all spending must be reconciled for SIPO.  There are limits on donations that you can accept.  A decent campaign will set you back about €15,000.  A winning campaign will cost double that.

Tucked away inside this week’s Wexford People, Mayor Ger Carthy mentions that he has several people backing him financially.  The inference is that the great and good of the Barony of Forth and Bargy are rattling the collection bucket to fund his campaign.  Good luck to them on that but the legal maximum they can pony up for this pleasure is the princely sum of €600.

I started by reminiscing about the 80’s so I’ll finish in that vein.  In 1982 we had 2 elections in a row, Is it a case of Back to the Future?

The wheels are moving

It may be the lull before the storm.  Last week Fine Gael confirmed that Julie Hogan will be their candidate in Wexford District.  She is from Saltmills in the Hook but lives and works in Wexford.  Some Fine Gael members are of 2 minds about running a 3^rd candidate. 

Roll back about 6 months and Alan Corcoran on South East Radio interviewed Liam Twomey about the forthcoming election. Twomey sounded every inch a candidate on air.  There was no hint that he was about to change his mind so dramatically.  Since his announcement Dr Twomey has accelerated his wind down.  His office in Anne Street is closed a few months and there is little mention of him in the local media.  Why has it taken so long for Fine Gael to produce a candidate who hopes to take over from him?

It is an impossible job to canvas the substantial Fine Gael vote that elected Twomey 5 years ago in the short time that remains to polling day.  Fine Gael has already experienced problems elsewhere with candidate selection.  To be fair to all involved in Wexford, the question really has to be asked once more within the organisation; what was head office doing?  How does any new candidate go about building up a profile in such a short time?  For Julie Hogan, the only way is up.

Also hoping to target votes south of the Duncannon line are Ger Carthy and Aoife Byrne.  Mayor Carthy has a large rural area all to himself from Rosslare to Duncormick where there is no other resident candidate. Aoife Byrne based in Wexford will get the Fianna Fail vote out in the district.  It may not be of the order that Tony Dempsey harvested in 2002 when he defeated her father, but make no mistake about it, there still is a core FF vote there which will come out on polling day in numbers that may yet surprise some observers.  Aoife has the personal touch which counts with a lot of people.  Her support will grow as you go west towards Hook.

FF HQ may have been a lot shrewder than FG’s when it comes to picking their Wexford candidates.  Malcolm Byrne will have the entire Gorey District for his head to head battle with Michael D’arcy. Aside from the Green candidate who is a Ross native but lives in Gorey, no other candidate lives in the district.  The picture there is clearer to see.

But with candidates like Carthy, Byrne and Hogan they may appeal to New Ross voters which will see Wexford District candidates pull votes out of New Ross.  In 2011, Mick Wallace did the opposite, he pulled votes from other districts into New Ross.  While the name Carthy has strong appeal in some parts, a General Election is very different to a local election.  Being effective at getting potholes filled does not make a public representative expert on Brexit or budget surpluses.

However the key question is what will turn out be?  The record turn out in 2011 is unlikely to be bettered.  In this scenario, who votes and whether there is a variation in the turn out across the county will impact on the outcome.

Game on!

So here we are, it’s election year.  Sometime in the next 5 weeks Enda Kenny will call to Arás an Uachtarán and get ask the President to dissolve the Dáil.  Polling day will be named for the minimum of 3 weeks later.  And so, one of the longest election campaigns will climax.  Over the next few weeks, I’ll blog the campaign, the twists, the turns and the issues that influence where Wexford people will put their tick on February 26^th.  Oops! Have I just let polling day slip? Perhaps with a little bit of humour too! 

All governments have their own dynamic that underpins how they function.  For Albert Reynolds it was the peace process.  For Bertie Ahern it was running counter cyclic policies so that he could be re-elected.  For this government it has been dealing with the impact of Ahearn’s chaos and the collapse in expectations arising from that. I often wonder which is the greater political offence, Ahearn and Cowen destroying the expectations or the wider realisation in the last 5 years that those days may not be coming back?  This recovery is tentative and depends on a wide range of external factors. The government can rightly claim credit for getting state spending in order.  But oil prices, the slow pace of recovery in the EU and low interest rates or the euro sterling exchange rate were not part of the Troika deal.  What the government most certainly can claim is that competent economic management provides confidence for the private sector to invest here and take advantage of those outside factors.  

The destruction of the economy did impact psychologically on people in the same way as a destructive war. During World War 2 the British government had nothing to lose so it set out how the country would be different after the war. Ideas like the NHS, free 3^rd level education, abolition of the 11 plus, new towns, all stem from this era. But we have had little of an alternative vision for Ireland apart from free GP care for under 6’s, Same Sex Marriage and legislating for the X Case.  Locally we’ve seen a new Emergency Department for the hospital, a new Garda Station, new schools being built and new access to the county.  In 2011 the key local issue in Wexford that ranked alongside the economy was the survival of the local hospital.  Once Brendan Howlin entered government the success of that campaign was a given but there was no political pay back to Howlin.   

There has been growing anger in the last 5 years.  Harnessing this anger politically substituted for vision when it came to the opposition.   As a result for some the General Election has been on for the last 5 years.  

Wexford will elect 5 TD’s.  3 outgoing TD’s will contest along with each party except Renua Ireland. A plethora of independents will run too. Interestingly just 1 unsuccessful candidate from 5 years will run again.  That means just 4 of the 14 candidates from 2011 are back this year. What does that tell you about the turnover in personalities and the demands of political life? This time round there are 16 candidates.

Elections are about geography. 3 candidates are from Enniscorthy, 3 from Gorey, 4 from New Ross but a staggering 6 are from Wexford. Elections are about history; Wexford and Enniscorthy Districts have elected TD’s to each Dáil since the foundation of the state.  Whereas General Elections nationally used to be about a 2 and a half party system, Wexford has always seen a 3 way split which in the last 15 years has at times become a 4 way split sharing to all main national parties and beyond to independents.

Personalities often emerge in a campaign and they dominate and create their own momentum.  Twomey and Wallace did that in previous elections.  While Wallace has done his best to keep the rollercoaster going he will do so mostly at the expense of small independents.  In 2011 he took about  85% of the votes cast for independent candidates.  Can he continue to hover up this support and if so what will that mean for other independent candidates? How do they mark themselves out as different?   Just 1 post office has closed in the county in the last 5 years yet we have a candidate opposing post office closures. 

Then there’s the smaller parties.  5 years ago People Before Profit secured almost 800 votes.  Add the progress that the party has made since then and expectations of a sizeable vote of several thousand are realistic. SF won’t like being called small but 2011 saw its vote plummet in Wexford.  Can SF break the 5,000 votes won by John Dwyer in previous elections?  A lot of pressure, not just on outgoing TD’s, but on hopefuls too.  With 2 vacancies there’ll never be another chance for candidates like the one presented in 2016.  Social Democrats are running also.  There are more than a few dark horses who might depending on how the campaign progresses spot a gap and win votes.

But it all depends in turnout, who votes and where they live.  A differential turn out may see one candidate from New Ross or Gorey win. 8 of the 16 candidates are seen as genuine contenders.  Depending on the turnout and how districts vote, we may see someone who might in other circumstance not be in with a shout challenge. 

So the teams are coming out of the dressing room, the band is lining up for the parade.  It won’t be long till the ball is in. Game on!