The wheels are moving

It may be the lull before the storm.  Last week Fine Gael confirmed that Julie Hogan will be their candidate in Wexford District.  She is from Saltmills in the Hook but lives and works in Wexford.  Some Fine Gael members are of 2 minds about running a 3^rd candidate. 

Roll back about 6 months and Alan Corcoran on South East Radio interviewed Liam Twomey about the forthcoming election. Twomey sounded every inch a candidate on air.  There was no hint that he was about to change his mind so dramatically.  Since his announcement Dr Twomey has accelerated his wind down.  His office in Anne Street is closed a few months and there is little mention of him in the local media.  Why has it taken so long for Fine Gael to produce a candidate who hopes to take over from him?

It is an impossible job to canvas the substantial Fine Gael vote that elected Twomey 5 years ago in the short time that remains to polling day.  Fine Gael has already experienced problems elsewhere with candidate selection.  To be fair to all involved in Wexford, the question really has to be asked once more within the organisation; what was head office doing?  How does any new candidate go about building up a profile in such a short time?  For Julie Hogan, the only way is up.

Also hoping to target votes south of the Duncannon line are Ger Carthy and Aoife Byrne.  Mayor Carthy has a large rural area all to himself from Rosslare to Duncormick where there is no other resident candidate. Aoife Byrne based in Wexford will get the Fianna Fail vote out in the district.  It may not be of the order that Tony Dempsey harvested in 2002 when he defeated her father, but make no mistake about it, there still is a core FF vote there which will come out on polling day in numbers that may yet surprise some observers.  Aoife has the personal touch which counts with a lot of people.  Her support will grow as you go west towards Hook.

FF HQ may have been a lot shrewder than FG’s when it comes to picking their Wexford candidates.  Malcolm Byrne will have the entire Gorey District for his head to head battle with Michael D’arcy. Aside from the Green candidate who is a Ross native but lives in Gorey, no other candidate lives in the district.  The picture there is clearer to see.

But with candidates like Carthy, Byrne and Hogan they may appeal to New Ross voters which will see Wexford District candidates pull votes out of New Ross.  In 2011, Mick Wallace did the opposite, he pulled votes from other districts into New Ross.  While the name Carthy has strong appeal in some parts, a General Election is very different to a local election.  Being effective at getting potholes filled does not make a public representative expert on Brexit or budget surpluses.

However the key question is what will turn out be?  The record turn out in 2011 is unlikely to be bettered.  In this scenario, who votes and whether there is a variation in the turn out across the county will impact on the outcome.