At first glance it may well look as though the pattern may
repeat itself. However think forward and perhaps that’s not the way it may turn
out. We will have a Presidential election later this year. It is clear that
Gerard Craughwell will get enough support among independents for a tilt at the
Arás. If he runs you can rest assured that SF will not let him off on his own.
We’ll have a Presidential election this autumn. Presidential
Elections are allocated a 60 day campaign. So at the start of September, we’ll
know who may be nominated, by Halloween, we’ll know the result.
During that period we’ll have a budget. Could it be defeated
and can a general election be constitutionally called during a presidential
election campaign? So the budget will pass and then the Finance and Social
Welfare Acts will give effect to the budget changes. That will take until
Christmas.
But once we enter the new year, all bets are off. Fianna
Fail will see themselves out of the Confidence and Supply Deal and any issue
could and will trigger an election. So presuming there will be an election in
March next year, bear in mind how long it can take to form a government.
Easter next year will be later than usual. Once Easter is
over we are into Local and European Elections. With new ministers barely in
their new jobs, there’ll be little for the electorate to give any new
government a kicking over by the time the new boundaries come into play on
polling day next year.
Or at least that’s what Fine Gael councillors reckon. This
will be a local election which will favour incumbents for many reasons. Local
elections will be about local issues. Any outgoing councillor will of course
have the ear of officials and will have an enormous advantage in that election.
There may well be an election weariness by the time the local elections come around
so turn out may well be much lower than average.
And when you look at the boundaries it further reinforces
the notion that the status quo will prevail. The decision to ring fence Wexford
as one ward makes sense. However introducing Clongeen into the district makes
no sense. Including the name of Kilmore in the entire district sounds
peculiarly quaint. This ward will be
most hotly contested. 5 outgoing councillors will be joined by one councillor
moving from New Ross district and Paul Codd, the son of the late Pat Codd, Mr
Taghmon. Something has to give.
Wexford will have 7 seats. Social media discussion of that
ward will assure you that all 14 candidates will win. I’ve yet to see that
happen in any election.
Gorey district has been taken apart in this redraw. The
village of Ballycanew is familiar to most people from Wexford who take the
direct road to Gorey. You’d hardly get back into 5th gear having
driven through the village before you decelerate once more to get onto the
motorway. Bizarrely Bally canew and its hinterland are now considered part of Enniscorthy.
Gorey has dropped to 6 seats which is just one seat more than Kilmore ward has
been allocated.
Enniscorthy will comprise 2 wards with one centred on the
town but also a coastal ward at Kilmuckridge. New Ross has also lost a seat as
well as some territory to Wexford. Taghmon has returned to its rightful place
in Wexford District. But the real downside for Wexford ward is that the 7 councillors it elects won't have officials ring fenced to work for the town but the 6 elected in Gorey District will have engineers and a dedicated secretariat. Why? Because Wexford will be a ward while Gorey will be a district.
So that’s the territory and the context of the redraw. What I
can’t do now is predict the issues in each ward that will elect our next
council. Let’s hope it as election that debates ideas and local issues. 2014
was all about candidates pretending they could reduce property charges, rates,
and abolish water charges while giving a better service. A weary public bought that populism. There’s
no doubt that the electorate may not wish to punish those who won using this line,
however let’s hope that some of the new councillors will hold them to account.
