The voting is over, but what does it tell us?

One voter I met at my polling station at lunchtime summed up the General Election in a sentence; “If you can get people to believe that a house can be built for €65K and still can cut tax and give everyone free transport, you can get away with murder.”

The reality of the General Election campaign is that Sinn Fein should get down on their knees and thank themselves for the media we have.  Journalists, rightly asked questions about the brutal murder of Paul Quinn. But serious questions about Sinn Fein’s policy platform were parked.  The parties populist policy on free public transport, cutting USC, abolition of property tax  and doubts about amounts the party claims can be raised on other taxes went largely unchallenged.

Ultimately it is a government that we elect, one that will carry out policies. That’s what will define the next Dáil. So who will represent Wexford after today?

Having knocked the door and taken the political temperature over the last few weeks I think that the following will be elected; Brendan Howlin, James Browne, Michael D’arcy, Johnny Mythen and Malcolm Byrne in that order. Malcolm may find the going tough as his party colleague Michael Sheehan may benefit more from transfers from Lisa McDonald and Verona Murphy than Malcolm. But Gorey has a larger population  and I would expect Malcolm Byrne to be well ahead of Sheehan on the first count. Can Sheehan bridge the gap? I’m not sure but he will come very close.

This result will underpin a trend that has been happening for years in Wexford. Gorey has grown in population and passed out New Ross. New Ross has on paper a fine chance to win a seat in the Dáil, Murphy and Sheehan are strong local candidates that may attract preferences.  It is clear that Verona Murphy has damaged Paul Kehoe. Posters calling on voters to “Keep Kehoe” have gone up in New Ross indicating how much pressure he’s under from Murphy.  Kehoe is also under pressure from Sinn Fein especially in his home town of Enniscorthy. National polls show Fine Gael losing votes to Sinn Fein. In 2016 Kehoe retained his seat by a handful of votes from Sinn Fein. If this trend is a reality then the FG candidate most likely to feel the heat is Paul Kehoe.

It is clear that there has been variation across Wexford in turnout. Rosslare Strand has been at the high end while town boxes were less busy, especially in the evening after the match and a wild gale blowing outside.  If the appetite for change is as strong as is forecast, where are the voters that want to deliver that change? Turn out may not exceed 65% which is less than the 67% in 2016 and 70% in 2011.

Nationally the result is indecisive, there is no strong government that can be put together on these figures. The two viable options are Fianna Fail or Fine Gael whichever is the larger with a confidence and supply deal with the other. Or a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein coalition which is also numerically possible. For Sinn Fein the white heat of government formation will be something very different to what it has negotiated before.  Dáil Éireann is not Stormont. The buck stops at the cabinet table, there’s no friend to phone in Westminster to help you answer the hard questions.

Sinn Fein may find that talking about forming a government is different to being in government. But politics is about change and no party better able to change itself if it is to deliver all that it has promised.  So get out that suitcase, there’s a mystery tour ahead with your free travel pass, Mary Lou.

Not long to go now!

And so we come to Wexford District. Wexford including its natural hinterland is the largest part of the county containing over 40,000 people. The town has traditionally dominated the county with its music, culture, harbour and tourism giving it a quality of life that many outsiders find attractive. Wexford has seen a huge transition in the last 2 decades. Gone is much of its heavy industry and it is replaced with services and finances. The main employers are based outside the town on the Rosslare Rd. Many workers commute by car and live in the surrounding villages.

It is a better quality of life to what is available in the Dublin area. Much of the credit for the transformation can go to Brendan Howlin. His periods in office have been good to Wexford, Hospital upgrades where once there were marches to ensure its survival. New schools, garda HQ, new court house while the by pass of Enniscorthy and New Ross make it easier to access the county.

It may surprise the outsider that there is no other candidate from a major party that lives in Wexford, but you don’t have to go far to work out why. Direct Democracy are running David Lloyd but David has not run a high octane campaign so far.

The real interest in Wexford district lies in the rural part to the south of the district. South Wexford has 3 candidates. All live within about 4 miles of one another, Lisa McDonald of Fianna Fail, Jim Codd, Aontú and Ger Carthy Independent. The 3 candidates will all poll well and will stay in the running after early eliminations. For these 3 candidates a high turn out is essential to get traction in the count. Their main rivals dominate in urban areas. For Lisa McDonald the focus is very much an internal one within Fianna Fail. Close observers on the race have said to me that Lisa may well find that her outburst directed at the powers that be may attract votes locally but may not have attracted as many as the potential it has to damage her for transfers from her FF running mates. And she will need them given the arrival of Codd and Carthy on the scene.

You get the sense that Codd may find it hard to top his bye election campaign and that he is seen in the same light as John Dwyer was in 2016, running to damage Sinn Fein. Time has moved on and its unlikely that he’ll impact as much on SF as Dywer did. I get the feeling that Codd’s elimination may benefit Carthy rather than McDonald although it must be said Aontu votes may also go to Sinn Fein and right wing candidates like Verona Murphy.  Between Carthy and McDonald there will be a significant pool of votes. Carthy has been close to Shane Ross’s independent alliance hosting visits to Our Ladys Island for Ross. This will have done him no harm in his own area but will that association give him traction across the county? The jury’s out on this one.

But to the west of this district votes may well be lost to Verona Murphy who may reduce the chance of either Carthy or McDonald causing a big shock. McDonald may also find herself under pressure from Sheehan who has apparently discovered that all along he was living in South Wexford judging by where his posters and canvassers are popping up.

But when all is said and done, will there be another TD from South Wexford alongside Brendan Howlin? I’m inclined to say no at this stage. Judging by the level of support in Wexford town for Howlin, there’s little appetite for any outsider. Whether a second TD can be elected is a matter for rural voters.

Time will tell on this one and there’s still a lot of doors to be knocked.