The voting is over, but what does it tell us?

One voter I met at my polling station at lunchtime summed up the General Election in a sentence; “If you can get people to believe that a house can be built for €65K and still can cut tax and give everyone free transport, you can get away with murder.”

The reality of the General Election campaign is that Sinn Fein should get down on their knees and thank themselves for the media we have.  Journalists, rightly asked questions about the brutal murder of Paul Quinn. But serious questions about Sinn Fein’s policy platform were parked.  The parties populist policy on free public transport, cutting USC, abolition of property tax  and doubts about amounts the party claims can be raised on other taxes went largely unchallenged.

Ultimately it is a government that we elect, one that will carry out policies. That’s what will define the next Dáil. So who will represent Wexford after today?

Having knocked the door and taken the political temperature over the last few weeks I think that the following will be elected; Brendan Howlin, James Browne, Michael D’arcy, Johnny Mythen and Malcolm Byrne in that order. Malcolm may find the going tough as his party colleague Michael Sheehan may benefit more from transfers from Lisa McDonald and Verona Murphy than Malcolm. But Gorey has a larger population  and I would expect Malcolm Byrne to be well ahead of Sheehan on the first count. Can Sheehan bridge the gap? I’m not sure but he will come very close.

This result will underpin a trend that has been happening for years in Wexford. Gorey has grown in population and passed out New Ross. New Ross has on paper a fine chance to win a seat in the Dáil, Murphy and Sheehan are strong local candidates that may attract preferences.  It is clear that Verona Murphy has damaged Paul Kehoe. Posters calling on voters to “Keep Kehoe” have gone up in New Ross indicating how much pressure he’s under from Murphy.  Kehoe is also under pressure from Sinn Fein especially in his home town of Enniscorthy. National polls show Fine Gael losing votes to Sinn Fein. In 2016 Kehoe retained his seat by a handful of votes from Sinn Fein. If this trend is a reality then the FG candidate most likely to feel the heat is Paul Kehoe.

It is clear that there has been variation across Wexford in turnout. Rosslare Strand has been at the high end while town boxes were less busy, especially in the evening after the match and a wild gale blowing outside.  If the appetite for change is as strong as is forecast, where are the voters that want to deliver that change? Turn out may not exceed 65% which is less than the 67% in 2016 and 70% in 2011.

Nationally the result is indecisive, there is no strong government that can be put together on these figures. The two viable options are Fianna Fail or Fine Gael whichever is the larger with a confidence and supply deal with the other. Or a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein coalition which is also numerically possible. For Sinn Fein the white heat of government formation will be something very different to what it has negotiated before.  Dáil Éireann is not Stormont. The buck stops at the cabinet table, there’s no friend to phone in Westminster to help you answer the hard questions.

Sinn Fein may find that talking about forming a government is different to being in government. But politics is about change and no party better able to change itself if it is to deliver all that it has promised.  So get out that suitcase, there’s a mystery tour ahead with your free travel pass, Mary Lou.