Murphy's Law

The  law requires election posters to be removed within a week of polling. However given that the government has threatened a general election in the middle of the Leopardstown if later this week the Dail votes no confidence in Eoghan Murphy suggests that many candidates may be wondering should they remove the posters at all?

One candidate who’s already made her views clear on Eoghan Murphy is Fine Gael’s Verona Murphy. It’s a case of “Let them eat cake”. But the curious scenario where Verona will be in a position of having to vote confidence in the other Murphy is receding fast.

It’s case of Murphy’s Law, anything that could go wrong did go wrong. In the end it was Fine Gael voters who deprogrammed her. Verona Murphy  thought she could appeal beyond her own base to attract a Peter Casey vote. In the end she turned off the very people who asked her to run in the first place. She got a rural vote but her urban middle class vote either stayed at home or went elsewhere.

George Lawlor has been the main beneficiary of the collapse in her base. Fianna Fail’s Malcolm Byrne is set to top the poll. Tallies show its not so much about Labour versus Fianna Fail more North Wexford against South Wexford. The high turn out in rural South Wexford compared to the urban Enniscorthy sets up an interesting side competition between Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen and Aontú’s Jim Codd. The Green surge didn’t come beyond the pale however they still comfortably poll ahead of the Solidarity/People Before /Profit candidate.

I visualise the 1^st count will show that there are 3 groups of candidates; O’Neill, Keddy and Blackmore who’ll be eliminated quickly. The next group contains Dubsky, Codd and Mythen.  Mythen is about 1,000 votes ahead of Codd but the margin could get closer as we move along.

Eventually there are 3 candidates who’ll be at the business end of the day. Lawlor is marginally behind Murphy. Murphy gained a lot of votes in Gorey as well as New Ross. It’s not a traditional FG vote it’s a vote that was brought to her by her far right views. Gorey is a place which has a younger age profile than the rest of the constituency. Is it the case that younger voters may be more receptive to right wing values?

Having looked at some votes, Murphy’s preferences tend towards George Lawlor. If George Lawlor passes Verona Murphy out he has a better chance of closing the gap on Byrne than Murphy has.

It’ll be an interesting evening!

Bluffers guide to the Wexford Bye election

With 3 days to go and still more politicking to do, lets park the issues and look at the actual election. Let’s flag where early indications may come from as to who may eventually win.

It is too late to get on the register, your polling card has been sent however a possession of a polling card is not essential in order to vote. If you voted in the local elections you’ll know where your polling station is. Simply return there and ask to vote but bring ID just in case.

There is only 1 ballot paper this time and it is a simple case of voting No 1 for the person who you think is best for the job and continuing with your preference vote for other candidates who you feel merit support.

Voting is between 7AM and 10PM this Friday, November 28^th. Ballot boxes will be collected and brought to the count centre at St Josephs Club, Bishopswater. Counting will commence at 9AM on Saturday morning.

So what may happen? Given that turn out may be much lower than the local elections and that there is just one ballot paper to count it is reasonable to expect a tally before lunchtime. Wexford has about 110,000 registered voters. A first count will be delivered in the early afternoon and then the real drama will start.  A 40% turn out (and that depending on weather may be optimistic) will suggest a quota close to 22,000. Bye elections rarely see the winner elected  exceeding the quota. There will be plenty of plumbers so candidates are looking to transfers from lower candidates. So percentage performance may be  better indicator of how candidates are performing than actual votes.

But the turnout may well be different around the county. Malcolm Byrne and George Lawlor both have a strong record in their home towns and its certain that an above average  turn out in their home basis will set them both up nicely. This gives them an advantage over Verona Murphy or Johnny Mythen as Wexford and Gorey have larger populations.

Based on percentage share from last May the baseline support for each party is

FF 30%     FG 25%      Labour 9%      SF 8%       Aontú 2%.  

Other parties and Independents 25%. 

Looking at the baseline vote and the absence of independents may explain some candidates strategy. How do you appeal to the independent vote which in Wexford is more rural and conservative than left wing. In the absence of an independent candidate that block of votes can if it moves in one direction give the recipient of those votes a huge boost.

It may however be more likely that the independent voters vote for a local candidate and may be more likely to revert to a local candidate than behave like a herd. If that is the case I’d expect geography to hugely influence how people vote. Jim Codd of Aontú can on that basis expect a large vote from South Wexford. New Ross elected 2 independents. Its fair to expect that Verona Murphy is well placed to get a fair share of their support while Malcolm Byrne can expect those votes from Mary Farrell in Kilmuckridge, while George Lawlor may see Leonard Kelly and to a lesser extent  Davy Hynes support come his way at the ballot box.

So as to what I expect may happen? Ultimately it is all down to transfers. Where the voters put their second and subsequent preferences will decide who gets the seat. It would not surprise me if Jim Codd and Johnny Mythen   were neck and neck. I would not rule a recount if there was the likelihood of an elimination of either at the others expense.

Verona Murphy will find out that few of her views resonate with Fine Gael supporters. That’s not to suggest she’ll tank. She’ll build in rural Wexford on the support that Peter Casey won, but beyond that she won’t attract transfers. She’ll pick up transfers from 3 other right wing candidates, but it won’t be enough.

By Saturday evening expect it to be down to the last two; Long time front runner Malcolm Byrne and Labour’s George Lawlor is coming up on the rails.

With Labour’s other candidates performing well in the other contests, the jibe that Labour is dead is well and truly dead itself.  I expect it to be a close run thing.

Who’ll be the big loser? Independents may well see support seep away for the lack of an independent to vote for.  The challenge at any future election is to get that vote back. It’s easier said than done given that the general election may be upon us sooner rather than later.

Deprogrammed! Where should we point the finger?

They say that in Shakespeare’s plays you’ll find the roots of all other subsequent dramas. When the  bard was writing Romeo and Juliet and basing it in Verona, he cold have hardly imagined how 4 centuries later Verona would be still on the tips of our tongues. A play about how an unlikely alliance across the divide ended badly for all concerned may have been a foretaste of the Wexford bye election.

Its likely that as Verona Murphy looks down from her balcony to survey the scene she wishes that things may have acted out differently. In a constituency where there is no Direct Provision Centre the main topic of the bye election is her views on direct provision. Speaking on RTE’s This Week she described herself as someone who likes going to funerals and then went on to elaborate on direct provision and ISIS an opinion which she has subsequently apologised and remarks she had withdrawn.

Verona Murphy at the outset seemed an ideal candidate for Fine Gael, Leo Varadkar closely campaigned alongside her early on. Initially she had intended to be a general election candidate however as events developed and the bye election became inevitable Verona Muprhy became Fine Gaels’ candidate.

Her background as a spokesperson for Road Hauliers in the middle of the Brexit crisis gave Verona  a profile from where  she could only build. And then something seemed to go wrong.  Firstly Brexit was postponed once more and the focus for the bye election campaign on all sides seemed to  switch to local issues. As Verona was not a councillor, this put her at a disadvantage.

She may have calculated that her remarks, which to be fair to the local FG membership are not typical of their views would put her back in the mix, especially with references to Oughterard. If that was her intention they have badly misfired. Her remarks were not a one off but also repeated to the Irish Times. The controversy has the potential not just to derail the FG bye election campaign but also to introduce race and immigration into the General Election campaign whenever that comes.

But Verona Murphy didn’t just turn up as a Fine Gael candidate. She was courted by the FG’s movers and shakers. Presumably her views on current issues had been discussed and fleshed out before she was unveiled to the electorate. While she has questions to answer, she’s not the only one. Someone somewhere in FG reckoned that this was acceptable and indeed electable. When the dust settles Fine Gael members need to ask their own party whose idea was it to run Verona Murphy, not once, but twice.

Or will she run in the coming general election? Could it be a case of, to quote Shakespear "Give me now leave, to leave thee.”?