Murphy's Law

The  law requires election posters to be removed within a week of polling. However given that the government has threatened a general election in the middle of the Leopardstown if later this week the Dail votes no confidence in Eoghan Murphy suggests that many candidates may be wondering should they remove the posters at all?

One candidate who’s already made her views clear on Eoghan Murphy is Fine Gael’s Verona Murphy. It’s a case of “Let them eat cake”. But the curious scenario where Verona will be in a position of having to vote confidence in the other Murphy is receding fast.

It’s case of Murphy’s Law, anything that could go wrong did go wrong. In the end it was Fine Gael voters who deprogrammed her. Verona Murphy  thought she could appeal beyond her own base to attract a Peter Casey vote. In the end she turned off the very people who asked her to run in the first place. She got a rural vote but her urban middle class vote either stayed at home or went elsewhere.

George Lawlor has been the main beneficiary of the collapse in her base. Fianna Fail’s Malcolm Byrne is set to top the poll. Tallies show its not so much about Labour versus Fianna Fail more North Wexford against South Wexford. The high turn out in rural South Wexford compared to the urban Enniscorthy sets up an interesting side competition between Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen and Aontú’s Jim Codd. The Green surge didn’t come beyond the pale however they still comfortably poll ahead of the Solidarity/People Before /Profit candidate.

I visualise the 1^st count will show that there are 3 groups of candidates; O’Neill, Keddy and Blackmore who’ll be eliminated quickly. The next group contains Dubsky, Codd and Mythen.  Mythen is about 1,000 votes ahead of Codd but the margin could get closer as we move along.

Eventually there are 3 candidates who’ll be at the business end of the day. Lawlor is marginally behind Murphy. Murphy gained a lot of votes in Gorey as well as New Ross. It’s not a traditional FG vote it’s a vote that was brought to her by her far right views. Gorey is a place which has a younger age profile than the rest of the constituency. Is it the case that younger voters may be more receptive to right wing values?

Having looked at some votes, Murphy’s preferences tend towards George Lawlor. If George Lawlor passes Verona Murphy out he has a better chance of closing the gap on Byrne than Murphy has.

It’ll be an interesting evening!