The Reckoning

And so when the dust settles there’s time to take stock. A rapid bruising by election where candidates were put under greater scrutiny than they would expect if they were to have run in a national election.

For each party the result will mean different things, but for most there will be a reckoning, just 6 months out from a general election, a time to make the necessary adjustments to ensure success where it counts.

Malcolm Byrne can reflect on a hard year where he won a nomination for Fianna Fail in the European election out of the blue. He ran in both it and the local election and then spent the later part knocking doors in the by election. At first hand he’s entitled to a honeymoon, but this is politics so expect the unexpected. His first action was to abstain in the vote of no confidence in Eoghan Murphy. Malcolm has been particularly critical of Eoghan Murphy as housing minister, so he can expect his own words to be thrown back at him. Elsewhere in Fianna Fail Michael Sheehan will begin his campaign to win a seat in the general election while Lisa McDonald will reflect on where to go after her stand off with Malcolm Byrne arising from her failure to be nominated.

Fine Gael will however see a greater reckoning than all the parties put together. Verona Murphy’s ill judged remarks and sense of victimhood played badly with many Fine Gael supporters. There are suggestions that she will be removed from the ticket by the party. However before she can be removed the party will need to find a replacement candidate. Who would take on the job? The election of Malcolm Byrne changes the political geography of the county. Gorey now has 2 deputies and will only likely elect one. Any potential FG candidate that might replace Verona Murphy would need to be carefully considered lest they impact negatively on the present FG TD’s. Who is the alternative candidate?

While Fine Gael may be inclined to drop Ms Murphy, it may prove easier said than done. Party HQ may be inclined to let the dust settle until early next year and see how things pan out then.

Labour will be the party most pleased with their performance. A strong vote in the town for George Lawlor. The constant jibes at the party in recent years that the party is dead are themselves buried. Brendan Howlin was nominated to run in the General Election almost 2 years ago. Nothing will change that. After almost 4 years as party leader he is beginning to see the party turn around. He’s entitled to the credit he was long denied.  Brendan is very clear that George Lawlor will be his eventual successor as Labour TD for Wexford. His strong performance underpins that prediction.

Sinn Fein’s campaign never inspired and in Wexford  townfew doors were knocked. For a party that prides itself on its political discipline ability to get boots on the ground this fact was most noticeable.  It appears to this writer that some in SF may have wanted their candidate to fail so he can be replaced before the General Election.  There will be a reckoning here too, however it will be done with all the transparency of an internal election for Vice President.

Which brings me to Aontú and the Greens. Both took huge slices of what was once the independent vote. Any increase in their support especially in rural areas came from independents. It is unlikely to go back there anytime soon if the 2 parties can organise. The ultimate losers in this election have been independents. 18 years on from electing an independent Wexford is back where it started.

When the wheel turns the full circle, the reckoning is not too far off either.