Not long to go now!

And so we come to Wexford District. Wexford including its natural hinterland is the largest part of the county containing over 40,000 people. The town has traditionally dominated the county with its music, culture, harbour and tourism giving it a quality of life that many outsiders find attractive. Wexford has seen a huge transition in the last 2 decades. Gone is much of its heavy industry and it is replaced with services and finances. The main employers are based outside the town on the Rosslare Rd. Many workers commute by car and live in the surrounding villages.

It is a better quality of life to what is available in the Dublin area. Much of the credit for the transformation can go to Brendan Howlin. His periods in office have been good to Wexford, Hospital upgrades where once there were marches to ensure its survival. New schools, garda HQ, new court house while the by pass of Enniscorthy and New Ross make it easier to access the county.

It may surprise the outsider that there is no other candidate from a major party that lives in Wexford, but you don’t have to go far to work out why. Direct Democracy are running David Lloyd but David has not run a high octane campaign so far.

The real interest in Wexford district lies in the rural part to the south of the district. South Wexford has 3 candidates. All live within about 4 miles of one another, Lisa McDonald of Fianna Fail, Jim Codd, Aontú and Ger Carthy Independent. The 3 candidates will all poll well and will stay in the running after early eliminations. For these 3 candidates a high turn out is essential to get traction in the count. Their main rivals dominate in urban areas. For Lisa McDonald the focus is very much an internal one within Fianna Fail. Close observers on the race have said to me that Lisa may well find that her outburst directed at the powers that be may attract votes locally but may not have attracted as many as the potential it has to damage her for transfers from her FF running mates. And she will need them given the arrival of Codd and Carthy on the scene.

You get the sense that Codd may find it hard to top his bye election campaign and that he is seen in the same light as John Dwyer was in 2016, running to damage Sinn Fein. Time has moved on and its unlikely that he’ll impact as much on SF as Dywer did. I get the feeling that Codd’s elimination may benefit Carthy rather than McDonald although it must be said Aontu votes may also go to Sinn Fein and right wing candidates like Verona Murphy.  Between Carthy and McDonald there will be a significant pool of votes. Carthy has been close to Shane Ross’s independent alliance hosting visits to Our Ladys Island for Ross. This will have done him no harm in his own area but will that association give him traction across the county? The jury’s out on this one.

But to the west of this district votes may well be lost to Verona Murphy who may reduce the chance of either Carthy or McDonald causing a big shock. McDonald may also find herself under pressure from Sheehan who has apparently discovered that all along he was living in South Wexford judging by where his posters and canvassers are popping up.

But when all is said and done, will there be another TD from South Wexford alongside Brendan Howlin? I’m inclined to say no at this stage. Judging by the level of support in Wexford town for Howlin, there’s little appetite for any outsider. Whether a second TD can be elected is a matter for rural voters.

Time will tell on this one and there’s still a lot of doors to be knocked.

And they're off!

The closer we came to the end of the Christmas recess, the easier the decision to hold a General Election became. 3 weeks out from voting there’s already 16 candidates in the field in Wexford, with more likely to come.  General Elections are fundamentally different to a local election. For some parties a general election may be about representation and putting down roots that might bear fruit in the future. For others its about numbers that will count where it counts in government formation.

If Princess Diana once thought that 3 made for a crowd, one wonders what Meghan Markle’s late mother in law might have made of the line up for Wexford in the forthcoming General Election. Already over half of the candidates who ran 4 years ago have announced their candidacy once more. It is early days yet and while there has been canvassing , few issues have brought  candidates into debate with one another.

The inner turmoil in Fianna Fail has been well documented elsewhere for some time. However Fine Gael only clarified that the number of candidates it will run this week. Uncertainty is the also the order of the day in People Before Profit. Deirdre Wadding made a surprise announcement of her political return having replaced Cinnamon Blackmore who in turn had taken on the job of Dail candidate from New Ross woman Susan Breen. 3 different candidates since last September is a far cry from 2016. Fine Gael on the other hand have decided that 3 is also beyond their reach and finally decided to stick with both outgoing ministers.

And so to Enniscorthy. Right in the middle of County Wexford, Enniscorthy has benefitted from a new by-pass which has made the town easier to get through.  Enniscorthy should be on the cusp of taking off but its not. Economic uncertainty still dogs the down with traders complaining at the level of rates. A good judge of a local economy is the health of advertising. The Echo Group of  Newspapers based in the town shut over 2 years ago leaving a hole socially and economically in the town. The Slaney runs through Enniscorthy and has down through the years  traditionally seen one side of the town eye the other with suspicion.Bridging those two sides has been a job that mere mortals found tough in the past. Enniscorthy is a Fianna Fail stronghold but that's not to say its spoken with one political voice down through the years. Johnny O'Leary of Labour and Ivan Yates have represented the area in the Dáil despite Enniscorthy being much smaller than Wexford.

 The current deputies for Enniscorthy are James Browne who is the third of his family line to hold a seat and Paul Kehoe of Fine Gael who just about beat off Johnny Mythen from Sinn Fein last time round.

All 3 go again. Apart from them, Seanie O’Shea and Ger Donnoghue Renua  have strong roots in the Enniscorthy district and may expect to poll well but for Renua it may well be the last throw of the dice. Aontú competes with it for the same socially conservative vote. The lost of these votes from Sinn Fein has reduced Johnny Mythen’s chances of a seat. Indeed Mythen losing his own council seat at the local election was one of the major shocks last year. Mythen is a popular and well regarded man in Enniscorthy who if he had been in any other party would have made more political progress. 

But  Browne is a banker for FF, quietly plodding away regardless on constituency work.

I don’t see Johnny Mythen pushing Paul Kehoe as close this time, Kehoe’s threat is from Verona Murphy has he also secures a lot of votes in South Wexford, votes that Ms Murphy thinks may be hers for the taking with her right wing speil.

Enniscorthy will elect one TD at least, my heart tells me it will elect two but its too early to be certain of that. If there is a shock in Wexford it may well be in the north of the county where it is to be detected.   

#GE20 only question is will it be sooner or later?

Happy New Year, a busy and potentially politically unstable year lies ahead. We are guaranteed a general election on a date yet to be decided. Over the next few months this blog will look at the General Election campaign in Wexford and how it progresses. Wexford has had a head start on most other constituencies in the country. We know what the local issues are from the bye-election campaign. Indeed we know many of the candidates who will feature over the next few months. It’s my own view that the date will decide the issues that may form the part of the national campaign.

An early election set for February will see health to the forefront. A Summer election may be preferred by Fine Gael in the hope that EU-UK Trade talks arising from Brexit will drive the debate and the FG campaign will be based about why change a Taosieach who is performing on an international stage. It will be about FG getting Brexti done!

I’m at a loss to understand why Fianna Fail want to wait until late Spring for an election.  Already a few FF TD’s are getting anxious about backing any more FG ministers in a confidence vote. Another confidence vote in Simon Harris is a certainty. Fianna Fail seem to be of the frame of mind that if they say nothing, power will simply slip into their hands. Under the radar is Sinn Fein, buoyed up by their unexpected victory in the Dublin mid West bye-election. Forget their hammering in Westminster, SF only want to be the Dáil. Their prospects may well be improved by a forthcoming deal to revive the administration at Stormont. This will deflect the frequent criticism they get of not wanting to take the hard decisions in office. It will also eliminate the logistical nightmare of running in 2 separate elections either side of the border within a short space of time.

On a local level all 4 major parties have selected their General Election candidates; Fianna Fail have 4, Fine Gael have 2 with another to be nominated, Labour, Aontú and Sinn Fein running one each. Last time round Wexford had 17 candidates for 5 seats. Fine Gael are certain to add a third candidate but beyond that it remains to be seen if the Greens, Social Democrats or Socialist Wrokers Party- Socialist Party will nominate a candidate and whether Verona Murphy will be tempted back into the campaign as a independent.  Perhaps we’ll see  15 names on the ballot paper.

Already the tell tale signs are there of internal friction in Fianna Fail. Before Christmas Deputy James Browne circulated his calendar to the voters in Wexford. This week saw Michael Sheehan circulate a calandar in South Wexford describing himself as the Fianna Fail candidate in South Wexford ignoring his running mate from South Wexford, Lisa McDonald.

His strategy is to eat into both McDonald and Murphy’s support in South Wexford by pushing a line of a TD for New Ross. Newly elected Deputy Malcolm Byrne will now in the cold light of day need to come to terms with the reality that he shares Gorey District with Minister Michael D’arcy and needs to push south for votes. That will bring him into conflict with the Browne Dynasty in Enniscorthy District. Sheehan has a much easier task to get elected this time around. Having kept out of the row about who FF would run, Sheehan may find preference votes from fellow Fianna Fail candidates easier to come by than either Byrne or McDonald. Sheehan has been expanding his presence in Wexford District in the last few months with his roadside hoardings urging electors  to shop local and attend the Wexford Opera.  These are increasing Sheehan’s profile outside his home base.

New Ross has always politically rewarded Fianna Fail much more than Fianna Fail has economically rewarded New Ross in the past. There’s every sign that this will once more be the case after the next election, especially if Fianna Fail are in office. Not every candidate has had the luxury of an indulgent electorate but Michael Sheehan won’t look a gift horse in the mouth. It will be extremely close between Sheehan and Byrne as to who will take a seat for FF seat.

Verona Murphy will soon announce what is already an open secret, i.e .that she will run once more for the Dáil as an independent. Over the Christmas the FG branding disappeared from outside her office. This will leave a vacancy on the Fine Gael ticket which will be presumably for a woman.  I suspect that if Bridin Murphy wants to run, all she as to do is to ask for it. She may struggle but FG will be eternally grateful to her and who knows what that mean into the future?

Verona Murphy has a different task at hand second time of asking.  At first hand she may wish to portray herself in the Mick Wallace mould, self made business person, unconventional and from the south west of Wexford. But that’s where the overlap ends. Call Wallace and his voters what you will but they won’t have truck with extreme views on asylum seekers. Murphy will not poll as well as she thinks in a general election where she gets little national profile.

She may however damage in the eyes of the electorate the word independent for many a long year. This may be Verona Murphy’s most long lasting contribution to Wexford politics. So that’s my focus on New Ross District for the forthcoming election. Ireland’s longest bridge will soon be opened. Built behind schedule so now let’s see if all the candidates can get over it.