You may not think it but think again. Wexford remains in
election mode. With Brexit and the possibility on the horizon of a General
Election in the near future, attention has shifted to the need to re-elect a
replacement TD for Mick Wallace since his elevation to the European Parliament.
Politics is all about timing so let’s try to pick a likely
election date for the Wexford By-election. The resignation was tendered on
July 1st. The law requires a
bye election within 6 months of the vacancy occurring. The moving of the writ
to replace Mick Wallace is the call of his political group Independents for
Change. The Dail must approve the holding of the election by a vote. The Dail
will not resume until September 17th so a vote cannot be held until
that date. Subsequently the date is fixed by the Minister for Local Government
which cannot be less than 30 days after the moving of the writ. That makes the Friday
October 18th earliest date for polling.
However to complicate matters there are 4 by-elections in
total to be held. Cork North Central, Fingal and Dublin mid West will go to the
polls also. The 4 vacancies impact on the Dáil arithmetic. So it is likely that
all 4 will be held on the same day so as to ensure that the possible changes to
the figures in the Dail. That could possibly put the date back slightly.
However the date will likely be after
the budget so it will be a matter for the Taoiseach to work with what numbers he
has got to get one passed.
However the latest possible date is January 1st. The idea that carol singers would be chasing
canvassers from door to door is ludicrous. That means that December can be
ruled out for voting too. The latest date for polling will be Friday November
29th. So there’s a 5 week window during which we’ll see the first
by election in Wexford since Brendan Corish was elected in 1945. Indeed that
bye election was one of five others held simultaneously on the same day. There
is an interesting parallel to the back drop of those bye-elections as they were
held against the backdrop of the end of a world war. Proof if it is ever needed that once more everything
in politics is cyclical.
So let’s look at the likely issues that may influence voters
and the likely turnout. Against the backdrop of Brexit there are no prizes for
guessing what may be top of the agenda. This morphs locally into the future of
Rosslare. Add to that the recent report that finds that proves how the South
East has lagged behind the rest of the country when it comes to its share of
economic activity. 8.5% of the population but 5.5% of Ireland’s economy. Why?
Well it’s simple, there is no university in the region so well educated people
are attracted elsewhere. What we know is that the better qualified you are, the
higher your income.
But there are the flip side issues as well. Flagging wealth to a relatively older and less well off electorate may not be as politically rewarding as it may seem in the short term. That’s why issues like the freezing of budgets in the area of home care has the potential to be a political banana skin for the government and the independents who support them. During the local election campaign the only thing that shocked me was when I came across a brother and sister who both had heart transplants. One had a further complication which required an amputation. While awaiting for a prosthesis a letter was sent from the HSE to advise in April that the budget in Wexford for 2019 was already used up last April. In the meantime the couple had to try their best to cope with an impossible situation. I made representations but to no avail.
The potential for a political land mine is clearly there in Wexford. Cutting home care packages impacts more in Wexford simply because we have a greater reliance on social welfare and assistance here. Polling will also coincide with the annual offer of school places to the incoming cohort in 2020. Traditionally this has always brought waiting list as well as disappointment to many parents especially in Wexford District.
T
here is only one way that we don’t have a by-election and that’s if Leo Vardakar calls a general election. There is the option of going to the park in September before the Dail returns and calling one for October. In my book you’d be looking at a date between Friday October 4th until 11th. That would however mean that the budget would be pushed back until November which would at least give certainty to the figures for 2020 as it would be after Brexit day on Halloween.
here is only one way that we don’t have a by-election and that’s if Leo Vardakar calls a general election. There is the option of going to the park in September before the Dail returns and calling one for October. In my book you’d be looking at a date between Friday October 4th until 11th. That would however mean that the budget would be pushed back until November which would at least give certainty to the figures for 2020 as it would be after Brexit day on Halloween.
However all that could change too! Tonight I see the
countdown clock is back on TV news flagging how many days are left until
Britain leaves. What if it doesn’t or can’t leave on that day?
Perhaps we will be getting a countdown clock for an Irish
General Election? Whatever the outcome it’s likely that the winner may not get
long to settle in Leinster House before they are out again knocking the doors.
Next time I’ll look at the likely candidates and
talk about possible turn out and geography
