In Ireland the filling of a casual vacancy that arises in
the Dáil is a bye-election. While there
may have been little campaigning over the summer, make no mistake there’s been
plenty of politicking! No party has yet officially nominated a candidate
however that’s not to say that nothing has happened.
The visibility stakes for party leaders kicked off with the appearance
of Leo Varadkar to open the Enniscorthy by-pass (not bye-pass?)and then on to
Wexford to open likely FG candidate Verona Murphy’s office on the quays. Not to
be outdone, Fianna Fail announced its Autumn think in ( I know what you’re
thinking too) for Gorey which just happens to be the home town of one of their
prospective candidates Malcolm Byrne. Not to be outdone, Fine Gael announced
that Leo Varadkar will attend the Kennedy summer School in New Ross next month
in Verona Murphy’s hometown.
Wexford stands out from the other 3 constituencies holding
bye-elections as it is the home constituency of Labour’s Brendan Howlin.
Impacting here will need work and recognition. That’s why geography is
important in a large county bye-election.
Park the last local council redraw. There are still in the
minds eye of the voters just 4 districts in Wexford based around the county
towns; Wexford, Gorey, New Ross and Enniscorthy. The key to winning the
bye-election is about winning the local district.
Wexford District has Labour has the largest single party
while Enniscorthy is dominated by Fianna
Fail, most notably the Browne family. New Ross has a strong Fianna Fail vote
which splinters in different factions. Historically Gorey was the stronghold of
the D’arcys but in recent years Fianna through Malcolm Byrne has dominated the
local election results.
So this election will be about turn out in the area where
candidates come from and who those candidates are is important. Mick Wallace
drew votes from all corners of the constituency however the south west of the
county is where he polls best. His personal vote was based on his charisma not
his work rate. Wallace never held political clinics and made a virtue of his
dis-interest in working the constituency. Many of his voters parked their need
for representation believing his media image was what Wexford needed
politically.
In looking at potential candidates Labour is likely to field
popular Wexford Mayor George Lawlor and Verona Murphy will represent Fine Gael.
Lawlor has few peers in both profile and
ability to deliver on the ground over the last 15 years. He’s in his 4th year as Mayor and
knows politics like the back of his hand. Ms Murphy heads up the national road hauliers
association and has a high profile lobbying for their interest in Brexit. I
suspect her campaign may well be damaged if Pat Barden a former FG member who
ran successfully in the council elections as an independent decides to run.-
Those 3 are likely runners but after that the field is less
clear. Fianna Fail have already selected Lisa McDonald as a candidate for a general
election as indeed has Johnny Mythen been selected by Sinn Fein. However that
is no guarantee for the bye-election. McDonald won her seat after a long
campaign in a tight constituency. Malcolm Byrne on the back of a strong
European Election campaign is now making his case as a bye-election candidate
over Lisa’s head. Foremost in the minds of FF will be the candidates ability to
get the vote out in their own district.
Sinn Fein have a different problem. Mythen came within a whisker
of taking the last seat 3 years ago at the general election. 3 months ago he
lost his council seat despite being personally popular ( that does happen, I
know!). Some in Sinn Fein see this as a chance to run a candidate other than
Mythen and the word on the ground is that he’s not as secure as many think and
that if he does run and doesn’t perform rumblings within the party will see
Mythen’s services no longer required.
Another candidate who will put Sinn Fein under pressure will
be Aontú’s Jim Codd. He will run so as to establish himself for the General
Election which is surely coming around the corner. Codd is based in South
Wexford and in the absence of Ger Carthy may well surprise voters with his
impact at the ballot box if Sinn Fein do not turn things around.
The big question is will Mick Wallace endorse a candidate
and if so who will that be? This may well impact and there may be an
independent or two who may throw shapes between now and the closing of
nominations in the hope of getting Mick’s approval.
At the last general election there were 17 candidates. Don’t
expect anything like that this Autumn.
Turnout was 66%. Don’t expect that either. However what will decide the
outcome is where the candidates are based and what turnout will be in the area
where they are based.
There’ll be at least 6 runners but not more than 8. Next
time I blog, we may well know who the runners are officially and perhaps the
ball may be and the game on.
