By election or a bye election?

In Ireland the filling of a casual vacancy that arises in the Dáil is a bye-election.  While there may have been little campaigning over the summer, make no mistake there’s been plenty of politicking! No party has yet officially nominated a candidate however that’s not to say that nothing has happened.

The visibility stakes for party leaders kicked off with the appearance of Leo Varadkar to open the Enniscorthy by-pass (not bye-pass?)and then on to Wexford to open likely FG candidate Verona Murphy’s office on the quays. Not to be outdone, Fianna Fail announced its Autumn think in ( I know what you’re thinking too) for Gorey which just happens to be the home town of one of their prospective candidates Malcolm Byrne. Not to be outdone, Fine Gael announced that Leo Varadkar will attend the Kennedy summer School in New Ross next month in Verona Murphy’s hometown.

Wexford stands out from the other 3 constituencies holding bye-elections as it is the home constituency of Labour’s Brendan Howlin. Impacting here will need work and recognition. That’s why geography is important in a large county bye-election.

Park the last local council redraw. There are still in the minds eye of the voters just 4 districts in Wexford based around the county towns; Wexford, Gorey, New Ross and Enniscorthy. The key to winning the bye-election is about winning the local district.

Wexford District has Labour has the largest single party while  Enniscorthy is dominated by Fianna Fail, most notably the Browne family. New Ross has a strong Fianna Fail vote which splinters in different factions. Historically Gorey was the stronghold of the D’arcys but in recent years Fianna through Malcolm Byrne has dominated the local election results.

So this election will be about turn out in the area where candidates come from and who those candidates are is important. Mick Wallace drew votes from all corners of the constituency however the south west of the county is where he polls best. His personal vote was based on his charisma not his work rate. Wallace never held political clinics and made a virtue of his dis-interest in working the constituency. Many of his voters parked their need for representation believing his media image was what Wexford needed politically.

In looking at potential candidates Labour is likely to field popular Wexford Mayor George Lawlor and Verona Murphy will represent Fine Gael.  Lawlor has few peers in both profile and ability to deliver on the ground over the last 15 years.  He’s in his 4^th year as Mayor and knows politics like the back of his hand.  Ms Murphy heads up the national road hauliers association and has a high profile lobbying for their interest in Brexit. I suspect her campaign may well be damaged if Pat Barden a former FG member who ran successfully in the council elections as an independent decides to run.-

Those 3 are likely runners but after that the field is less clear. Fianna Fail have already selected Lisa McDonald as a candidate for a general election as indeed has Johnny Mythen been selected by Sinn Fein. However that is no guarantee for the bye-election. McDonald won her seat after a long campaign in a tight constituency. Malcolm Byrne on the back of a strong European Election campaign is now making his case as a bye-election candidate over Lisa’s head. Foremost in the minds of FF will be the candidates ability to get the vote out in their own district.

Sinn Fein have a different problem. Mythen came within a whisker of taking the last seat 3 years ago at the general election. 3 months ago he lost his council seat despite being personally popular ( that does happen, I know!). Some in Sinn Fein see this as a chance to run a candidate other than Mythen and the word on the ground is that he’s not as secure as many think and that if he does run and doesn’t perform rumblings within the party will see Mythen’s services no longer required.

Another candidate who will put Sinn Fein under pressure will be Aontú’s Jim Codd. He will run so as to establish himself for the General Election which is surely coming around the corner. Codd is based in South Wexford and in the absence of Ger Carthy may well surprise voters with his impact at the ballot box if Sinn Fein do not turn things around.

The big question is will Mick Wallace endorse a candidate and if so who will that be? This may well impact and there may be an independent or two who may throw shapes between now and the closing of nominations in the hope of getting Mick’s approval.

At the last general election there were 17 candidates. Don’t expect anything like that this Autumn.  Turnout was 66%. Don’t expect that either. However what will decide the outcome is where the candidates are based and what turnout will be in the area where they are based.

There’ll be at least 6 runners but not more than 8. Next time I blog, we may well know who the runners are officially and perhaps the ball may be and the game on.