Sometimes you need to pinch yourself to remember there is
actually a bye-election campaign going on! Or maybe it’s the start of the
general election campaign? With less than 10 days to go before the writ can be
moved there’s little momentum towards any poll.
Little has happened outwardly in the last 3 weeks to shake
things up. There is the suggestion that Mick Wallace’s son, Fionn Wallace may
be selected as the Independents for Change candidate. Fionn was recently in the
headlines after he secured a position as Parliamentary Assistant to Dublin MEP
Claire Daly in Brussels. On the ground in Wexford the view is that unlike a
bye-election where a family member runs as a result of a bereavement this time
the sympathy vote doesn’t exist. Fionn, if he runs, will have to work the
constituency if he hope to win his father’s seat. Given Mick Wallace’s neglect
of the constituency there doesn’t appear to be a huge foundation for Fionn to
build on. Will His father’s personal vote still be there for him? Let’s see
Elsewhere Verona Murphy has opened a second office, this
time in New Ross. Interesting choice of location! Surely it’s a coincidence
that once more her office is within sight of that of a political running mate?
Wexford is the largest county in Leinster. Despite the reality that there’s
plenty of office and shop space for rent, Verona opened her first office 50M
from the office run by Michael D’arcy in Wexford. Now here second office in New
Ross is 100M along the Quays from Paul Kehoe. Front windows sport a large
poster of Verona announcing her as a Fine Gael Election Candidate. No mention
of whether she means Bye-election or General Election suggesting the likelihood
of Verona wanting an each way bet as to which will come first.
Fianna Fail’s Gorey think in spent much of the time focusing
on Brexit. In time this may well tell us more than we may think at first hand
about whether we’ll have a bye election at all. FF have committed to supporting
a budget. That budget will come in about a month. Implementing it will mean FF
support for the Finance Bill and Social Welfare Bill, that’s presuming there is
the annual fiver for all from Pascal Donnohue.
Expect the Confidence and Supply agreement to start to fray
around the edges within a month on the many other issues of the day. That’ll
coincide nicely from a FF point of view with Brexit date and the uncertainty
along the border. Given FF dominance in rural Ireland around the border expect
FF to highlight what it will claim to be FG failings from November onwards.
That scenario may well drop right into a bye election campaign. FG may prefer
to see that campaign precede Brexit given the possible role that Rosslare may
play and the potential for a localised issue. On the other hand given Verona
Murphy’s track record in haulage, they may well relish such an issue.
FG will select their candidate tonight while FF have yet to
pick. Lisa McDonald will fight to have her name on the ballot paper however she
will face opposition from Malcolm Byrne. Lisa McDonald will be a FF candidate
at the next general election. Internally there are a number of different views
in FF on their ticket when the country goes to the polls. A bye-election is
different. Already Prospective FF candidates are differing on local issues such
as the location of the future district Garda HQ. There may be more down the tracks in FF
before the dust settles.
I’ll end with a true story about a prospective candidate in
the bye election who on hearing of a death in a town in the county recently arrived
to the wake to sympathise. After expressing their condolences to the bereaved
the candidate took to pressing the flesh and asking for the No 1 vote. After a
few minutes a family member of the deceased took umbrage as the deceased was of
a different political line to the prospective candidate. The candidate was
approached and asked to stop asking for the No 1 vote. “Certainly” was the
response from the prospective candidate who subsequently re-worked the room
asking this time for the No 2 vote.
The things some will do for a vote!
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