Is it celebrity or representation we want?

Let’s be blunt about it. The General Election campaign is well underway.  Labour has just had a very successful conference in Killarney.   Since 1997 we’ve had just 3 elections in Ireland.  In the 18 years prior to 1997 we had 6 general elections.  Elections are the best opportunity to connect with the electorate on a large scale.  If there is a disconnect in society between the citizen and representatives, it’s because there have been less elections and politicians are getting on with the business that they are being paid for, which is politics.

General Elections now almost are on a fixed term. This may be politically convenient however I don’t think it is good for the electorate.  Issues which are resolved move off the agenda with increasing speed.  It doesn’t make for feedback.    And in the middle of all this we have the phenomena of celebrity politicians or high public profile candidates.

In Wexford the main issue in 2011 was the future of the General Hospital.  You don’t hear a word about it’s future now, that question has been resolved, principally by Labour being in office.  The long planned and long delayed improvements of the N25 and N11 are starting soon too.  Every issue moves on and with a more diverse media, it moves faster. 

Some elected representative only deals with the media and prioritise developing a profile over the needs of the electorate.   The deputies profile replaces their work rate in the mind of the electorate and becomes something that influences how someone votes.  So a public representative who is a hard constituency worker is dragged down to the level of a celebrity opponent. 

Media elevation of celebrity into achievement converts celebrity into political currency in a democracy.  Indeed can celebrity be more important to the electorate than achievement?  If it doesn't matter what way a deputy dresses, then why should the media refer to it?

Could it mean that the next election will be a fundamentally different election to anything we’ve ever had before.  The issues debated may not be the issues that voters decide on.  Many of the TD’s that might be elected may have to deal with issues for which the general public have no idea where these new deputies stand.   So as Lucinda Creighton sets out to reboot Ireland with her pop up party driven of celebrity money men, how can this make politics better for all than the some of the celebrities who were elected in 2011?  

All politics is local, so when a national poll is extrapolated back to a constituency the national trends aren’t reflected.  A diverse political landscape in a small country means that individuals that can top the poll in one part of the country, would lose a deposit elsewhere.   The make up of the next government will reflect the will of the people on election day but will politics develop in the way that people expect?  And at what stage do you need an upgrade to version 2.0 rather than simply reboot?   

 

Telling the passengers where to get off!

Margaret Thatcher used to say that the definition of failure was a man in his 30's taking a bus.  The news that Bus Eireann are planning to reduce Expressway services in Wexford shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to anyone. Bus Eireann run a route 5 to Waterford from Dublin along the N25/N30/N80/N81.  Not the most direct route and certainly not the fastest.  But one that connects a lot of villages with big towns. The route doesn’t hit dual carriage way until it reaches Tallaght.  By comparison you can travel from Waterford to Dublin on the M9 in about 2 hours comfortably.  It’s a no brainer if you want to go from Dublin to Waterford by Bus Eireann as to which route you’d take.  Route 5 is for the axe.

Many local communities are fearful of the impact of downgrading of service and ending of dropping off points.   Bus Eireann claim that the Expressway service does not receive a subvention and as a consequence must be profitable.  As a consequence they see routes terminating at Dublin Airport and linking to big urban areas the future for their fleet investment.  Elderly passengers on bus passes don’t seem to rate with the boys in Broadstone.  They are feeling the raw heat of competition from the private sector on their neck.

It’s very hard to feel sympathy for Bus Eireann.  For years the CIE group has gone to the government with a begging bowl looking to be bailed out when in fact they could have look at how to configure services to attract passengers.  The presumption that everyone wants to go to or from Dublin is wrong.  It’s possible with great time delays to go from Bunclody to Wexford return by bus. It takes almost 2 hours unless you want to take the only direct bus that departs at 19.50 and arrives at 20.40 but few appointments in Wexford are this late!  On the other hand if you want to go from Camolin to New Ross it’ll take as long as 3 hours in the morning although about an hour later in the day.  In both cases the journey is about 30 miles.  Clearly for a service branded “Expressway” connecting passengers for destinations other than Dublin isn’t high up the agenda.

Simply by interconnecting services in Wexford passenger numbers using these services could be higher.  Simply by listening to councils, numbers could be higher too.  As a councillor I asked Bus Eireann to run a service between Wexford and Carlow.  Both big towns with 20,000 passengers each, connected by a good road with the potential to interchange bus passengers for Kilkenny.  Carlow IT has a Wexford campus with plenty of students and a market. Sadly I was wasting my time.

At least there is the potential for another operator to tender for the route.  Follow the N81 to Dublin and you come to Tallaght with its IT, Square Shopping Complex and Hospital.  There is a market heading to this side of Dublin from Co Wexford and Carlow. So why did Bus Eireann fail?

That’s for the National Transport Authority to decide.  Any change in service must get the approval of the authority.  There needs to be a business case to reduce services, the NTA will have to listen to the case put to retain the service.  In that case Bus Eireann’s suggestion that it will end the service is conjecture if Wexford County Council want to fight the decision by putting the business case to retain and interconnect the counties services.

It’ll be the first test of council’s role in economic development.   

When is a market not a market? When it is free!

The laws of economics in a free market are few.  Market sentiment usually reflects the confidence of the customer in the product.  If something is surplus, its price drops, if something is scarce its price increases.  However there’s a maximum price at the top of a market and the minimum price in a bloated market can theoretically be zero.  All resources are finite. 

Once something is second hand its price drops.  You’ll pay a premium if you want to buy brand new.  Products can be anything that a market will value.  I’ve often wondered where is the logic of the market, when it comes to property. 

Property seemed to defy the market logic until 2008.  Then it slumped back to 2003 levels in line with incomes in the public sector.  The explanation that made Ireland uncompetitive as an economy in the noughties was that wages rose to keep in line with property price increases.  Property was a huge contributor to tax take. 

Rent on the other hand fell slightly.  Section 23 loans drove speculative property investment.  Buy to let was a no brainer (remember that expression from the SSIA’s?).  At my very first conference as a councillor in 2005 I recall a presentation urging councillors to invest their representational allowance in buy to let properties.  The target tenant was a builder from Eastern Europe!  Renting was money in the bank for nothing. 

While many of the buy to let properties rapidly dragged the investor down, it’s not true to say that all landlords took a hit. More discerning land lords still had a good business.  While household incomes dropped significantly, rents dropped by low single digits between 2009 and 2014.

No sooner has the turn around come in the economy than rents are starting to race away again.  If you are on social welfare you can get a rent supplement in addition to your welfare allowance that will help pay rent.  If you are on a low wage there’s no such cushion.  When I was a councillor I recall when speaking on the issue of rent supplement querying the absence of a market in Wexford and questioning the role of landlords locally.  Foolishly I expected support from councillors who would consider themselves to the left of me.  In fact I can recall being shouted down and interrupted on one occasion.  Their simplistic analysis is that the government should dip into your pocket and increase rent subsidy. 

But why should you subsidise a market that is one in name only? Why is it that an average property in Wexford which was purchased most likely over 10 years ago should have an average rent of €629 a month?  What are the drivers in that price set by the landlord? Surely initial cost price, add in the cost of maintaining which the land lord may well carry, property tax and possibly service charges. The landlord may appoint an agent who earns a commission.  The rest of the running costs are usually carried by the tenant.  The landlord can offset costs under Section 23 of Bertie’s finance act.  But why is there no competition between landlords? 

When most of us were shopping around and looking for a better deal, prices stubbornly remained above the laws of economics.  As tenants left prices should have dropped by a greater amount than they did.  As I pointed out to councillors about a year ago;  almost half the home purchases in 2013 were straight cash deals.  So who still had cash by 2013? Few purchases were on the basis of first time mortgages in 2012-13, banks had been conspicuously slow at granting mortgages. Some people were obviously sitting on money and knew the property market was about to turn. Clearly some properties were bought by those wanting to get back into the rental market. 

But here’s the real problem into the future.  People who rent aspire to buy.  High rents affects their ability to save a deposit.  Without the 10% deposit for first time buyers, the tenant is stuck in a rut.  This may be the future for many relying on the private sector for housing.  There’s little that any shouting councillor can do about that until there is an intervention in the market to increase affordability.

The Irish Sun sets for victims

I once served for a week on a High Court jury. It was over 25 years ago but to this day I remember the experience of a glimpse into how justice is administered.  I doubt if Elaine O’Hara ever in her life set foot inside a court.  She could surely never imagine how in death her life would be analysed in a Central Criminal Court room in all its bleakness for all to consume in the media.  Nothing has changed in 25 years, everything can be asked by counsel in attempting to appeal to a jury.

For weeks the trial of Graham Dwyer for the murder of Elaine O’Hara has dominated our headlines.  Justice must be seen to be done, however in the case of some media coverage of this trial the reporting of how the justice system works must surely have made many people ask about the detail that journalists feel is essential to report.

In particular the TV footage has shown many witnesses enter and leaving the court while the reporter gave detailed and explicit summary of the evidence given.  To summarise the weeks of evidence, the implication is that Elaine O’Hara’s lifestyle was in some way responsible for her early death.  Today The Irish Sun has led with a headline and photomontage that may be lifted from Elaine’s profile on a website that I have never heard of.  

It’s something I disagree with.   It is clear that Elaine had a very troubled and difficult life.  It is hard to see how Elaine could have been objective enough to make a decision on lifestyle choices and to understand possible dangers to herself arising from that inability.  This made her vulnerable not rational.  Elaine was a victim. 

I’m not putting on the Wexford jersey because Elaine has strong family connections to the South End of Wexford Town.    However, many people may well be asking themselves who exactly is on trial here, and for what?  Unlike many other women who disappeared in very suspicious circumstances, Elaine’s name was not high profile, it may have been the perfect murder as claimed in court, its perpetrator just as devious as the man responsible for the disappearance of Fiona Sinnott.   

The Graham Dwyer trial is held in Court 13.   There are many other court rooms in the building with equally serious cases for all involved being decided.  However, according to our media, just this case merits this level of coverage.

When this case concludes there deserves to be questions asked as to how the victim can be used to effectively sell tabloid papers.   In some continental countries the victim can be partly protected by withholding the surname of the victim from use in the media and substituting an initial.  In a small country like Ireland this may not always be effective.  But is it better than nothing?

Some day there may well be another case when a potential witness who has personal evidence to give may well think twice about getting involved.  What will happen then?   That is the real worry.

Surely the time has come for the media to take stock?

University of the South East's uphill journey to a higher level

A few weeks ago was closing date for completion of the CAO form.  It’s hard to think that once more the annual points race competitors are once more limbering up on the starting blocks. Already the mocks are on, After the mid term break the class of 2015 have just 10 more weeks left in school, sooner than they think it’ll be time to move on. But where?

Firstly second level school is no  Which is just as well as Wexford is about 90 miles from the nearest university campus.  The region’s IT’s in Waterford and Carlow are within easier reach.  Time was when Waterford IT was seen as the prime RTC, above all other RTC’s in the country.

t all about going on to third level or indeed university.

So as to acknowledge the status of Waterford RTC and to encourage it upward, Labour’s first Education Minister Niamh Breathnach had the college elevated to the status of Institute of Technology.  At the time Waterford RTC had student numbers on a par with Maynooth College.  It looked that it wouldn’t be long before the South East could have a university just as the Mid West had shortly before that got its own university at Limerick.

But under Fianna Fail, Waterford languished.  In the meantime the process of designating a university required international verification.  The nature of the economy evolved and skills needed changed also.

Labour has always said that there was a need to have a modern university based across the region on split campuses at Carlow, Waterford and Wexford.  Since 2011 when Labour once more held  the Ministry of Education,  this proposal along with 3 others from DIT, Munster and the BMW region for technical university status have been progressing towards presentation towards an international evaluation.

However the South East bid is significantly behind the others.  Chief reason is the failure of both college boards to agree a joint approach. An official has been appointed to knock heads together, however he cannot micromanage everything and forever.

The problem is that while 20 years ago the South East would have been a racing certainty for university status, this is no longer the situation.  Which is a huge pity. Often the electorate like to blame politicians for failings.  In this case it may be the ambitions of college dons that may undermine the potential of the region.  And it’s a shame, because there is a huge tradition of engineering, technology and  science in the region.  The skill base is still there but it needs to be enhanced and upgraded.  If other regions steal a march on us, what next? Who will be blame then?

Whatever you're having yourself

Got to welcome the government proposal on minimum pricing on alcohol even as someone who does like a drink.  The sale of alcohol has changed in many years. There are more brands on the market than there were 30 years ago. There are more different types of alcohol available on a supermarket shelf.  The expression; “Lord make me sober but not yet” has a special Irish meaning.

In the last few years the alcohol content has climbed, the market has been crowded by alcopops and shots aimed at young people while female consumption of wine has increased enormously over the last 15 years.  Add to that additional alcohol the sugar and it’s easy to see how the warnings are there, not just in relation to alcohol but also sugar.  Type 2 Diabetes is on the increase because sugar consumption is increasing, often as part of their alcohol intake.  That’s the problem ultimately. Forget the tabloid stuff about teens abusing drink, or the fall out from anti social behaviour.  Ask for once what excess alcohol does to the consumer.

Let’s look at the detail. Leo Varadkar proposes a range of prices for a unit of alcohol.  The figures mentioned in the media are at the highest end of the possible range of prices mentioned.  There is a need to cut the cheap drinks out of the market.  What has passed as cheap alcohol until now was below cost selling.  In the supermarket model by cutting the price of drink you made your money off the sale of other items.  Using cheap drink gets them in the door where the margin on other products is the profitable bit of the business.

Why can’t supermarkets cut the price of essentials and make it back on the sale of alcohol?  By having a floor price on alcohol and ensuring that placing poor standard alcohol at the same price as quality alcohol like craft beers and premium beer products, it actually gives consumers real choice for the first time in ages.

The floor price cannot affect the licensed trade as the floor is still well below what a publican will charge. Where the legislation falls short is on the need to ensure that sponsorship of events by alcohol companies must stop. 

In years to come this will be seen as hugely important if it goes ahead.

  

 

Ages in the Aegean.

So what happened to all the euphoria on the Irish left about Greece?  Famously Harold Wilson said that a week was a long time in politics.  Epoch on the other hand is a Greek word, it means fixed point of time.  In that case a fortnight must be an epoch.

In that time it seems the Greek Finance minister has visited almost every EU country including those outside the Euro like Britain who made no contribution to the Greek bailout. He visited every significant player in the EU crisis except of course Ireland or Portugal, two countries that also experienced bail outs in 2010 which subsequently exited.  He seems to getting a persistent message from all of the EU Finance Ministers and it is one that Ireland was given 4 years ago.

The only fig leaf to the Ireland was the name checking of Sinn Fein by Alex Tsipris on election night in Athens, much to Paul Murphy’s disgust.  Paul had made his way out in the hope of getting additional media coverage in Ireland.  Paul clearly believes that less is more, ie the less he is in Ireland, the more media coverage he gathers.

80% of Greece’s debt is to other EU states.  The private sector took their hair cut years ago.  It’s national governments like Ireland that stand to lose if Greek debt is reduced further.  Ireland is in the mix for €350M which it presumably borrowed at a higher interest rate than available now on the market.  It’s a no brainer if you ask Irish citizens which they would prefer, Tax cuts as loans are paid back from Athens or ignore the Greek debt and take a hit.

Syriza was never going to get a debt write off, so it looked for a debt conference.  What it might get is an extended time to pay off the debt it has already built up.  So that’s the past dealt with. But Syriza seems to have taken the direction that Gerry Adams once advised our government when he told the troika to go and take their money with them.  They don’t want the troika back and reject further funding and being tied down to conditions. Greek loans will run out shortly, they need to get funding beyond that to deliver on their many election promises. Already they’ve started to rehire public servants that were sacked a few years ago.  While Gerry Adams never had a Plan A in mind, let alone a Plan B, Greece needs to have a subtle Plan B.

It seems that there is a proposal to sell short term bonds to bridge the gap until the summer when new loans with a lower rate might make it easier to shoulder an enormous burden.  Let’s be blunt about it, who’d risk it, given what Syriza has said already? What would that do the interest rate of the bonds? 8% on 10 year bonds froze us out of the bond markets  in 2010.  At the minute Greek 10 year bonds are non existent, it can issue just 1 year bonds or stands over 30 year Treasury notes. That’s the long and the short of funding Greece.

Greek overtures to Russia over Ukraine may on the face of it sound cute hoor politics as Germany is not as opposed to Russia as other EU countries but in the labyrinthine world of Balkan politics it may unhinge some nations.  Turkey its traditional enemy is treading on egg shells with the Syrian civil war.  Syria survives because of tacit support from Russia.  Wrong footing Turkey by a strongly nationalist Greece may be a useful diversion internally as the Greek government choreographs its U turn over debt.

So politically, internationally and from a funding point of view Greece is running from one dead end street to another. And there we were in Ireland, innocently thinking that it was all about the money.

Was it something Paul Murphy said?