#GE20 only question is will it be sooner or later?

Happy New Year, a busy and potentially politically unstable year lies ahead. We are guaranteed a general election on a date yet to be decided. Over the next few months this blog will look at the General Election campaign in Wexford and how it progresses. Wexford has had a head start on most other constituencies in the country. We know what the local issues are from the bye-election campaign. Indeed we know many of the candidates who will feature over the next few months. It’s my own view that the date will decide the issues that may form the part of the national campaign.

An early election set for February will see health to the forefront. A Summer election may be preferred by Fine Gael in the hope that EU-UK Trade talks arising from Brexit will drive the debate and the FG campaign will be based about why change a Taosieach who is performing on an international stage. It will be about FG getting Brexti done!

I’m at a loss to understand why Fianna Fail want to wait until late Spring for an election.  Already a few FF TD’s are getting anxious about backing any more FG ministers in a confidence vote. Another confidence vote in Simon Harris is a certainty. Fianna Fail seem to be of the frame of mind that if they say nothing, power will simply slip into their hands. Under the radar is Sinn Fein, buoyed up by their unexpected victory in the Dublin mid West bye-election. Forget their hammering in Westminster, SF only want to be the Dáil. Their prospects may well be improved by a forthcoming deal to revive the administration at Stormont. This will deflect the frequent criticism they get of not wanting to take the hard decisions in office. It will also eliminate the logistical nightmare of running in 2 separate elections either side of the border within a short space of time.

On a local level all 4 major parties have selected their General Election candidates; Fianna Fail have 4, Fine Gael have 2 with another to be nominated, Labour, Aontú and Sinn Fein running one each. Last time round Wexford had 17 candidates for 5 seats. Fine Gael are certain to add a third candidate but beyond that it remains to be seen if the Greens, Social Democrats or Socialist Wrokers Party- Socialist Party will nominate a candidate and whether Verona Murphy will be tempted back into the campaign as a independent.  Perhaps we’ll see  15 names on the ballot paper.

Already the tell tale signs are there of internal friction in Fianna Fail. Before Christmas Deputy James Browne circulated his calendar to the voters in Wexford. This week saw Michael Sheehan circulate a calandar in South Wexford describing himself as the Fianna Fail candidate in South Wexford ignoring his running mate from South Wexford, Lisa McDonald.

His strategy is to eat into both McDonald and Murphy’s support in South Wexford by pushing a line of a TD for New Ross. Newly elected Deputy Malcolm Byrne will now in the cold light of day need to come to terms with the reality that he shares Gorey District with Minister Michael D’arcy and needs to push south for votes. That will bring him into conflict with the Browne Dynasty in Enniscorthy District. Sheehan has a much easier task to get elected this time around. Having kept out of the row about who FF would run, Sheehan may find preference votes from fellow Fianna Fail candidates easier to come by than either Byrne or McDonald. Sheehan has been expanding his presence in Wexford District in the last few months with his roadside hoardings urging electors  to shop local and attend the Wexford Opera.  These are increasing Sheehan’s profile outside his home base.

New Ross has always politically rewarded Fianna Fail much more than Fianna Fail has economically rewarded New Ross in the past. There’s every sign that this will once more be the case after the next election, especially if Fianna Fail are in office. Not every candidate has had the luxury of an indulgent electorate but Michael Sheehan won’t look a gift horse in the mouth. It will be extremely close between Sheehan and Byrne as to who will take a seat for FF seat.

Verona Murphy will soon announce what is already an open secret, i.e .that she will run once more for the Dáil as an independent. Over the Christmas the FG branding disappeared from outside her office. This will leave a vacancy on the Fine Gael ticket which will be presumably for a woman.  I suspect that if Bridin Murphy wants to run, all she as to do is to ask for it. She may struggle but FG will be eternally grateful to her and who knows what that mean into the future?

Verona Murphy has a different task at hand second time of asking.  At first hand she may wish to portray herself in the Mick Wallace mould, self made business person, unconventional and from the south west of Wexford. But that’s where the overlap ends. Call Wallace and his voters what you will but they won’t have truck with extreme views on asylum seekers. Murphy will not poll as well as she thinks in a general election where she gets little national profile.

She may however damage in the eyes of the electorate the word independent for many a long year. This may be Verona Murphy’s most long lasting contribution to Wexford politics. So that’s my focus on New Ross District for the forthcoming election. Ireland’s longest bridge will soon be opened. Built behind schedule so now let’s see if all the candidates can get over it.