Game on!

So here we are, it’s election year.  Sometime in the next 5 weeks Enda Kenny will call to Arás an Uachtarán and get ask the President to dissolve the Dáil.  Polling day will be named for the minimum of 3 weeks later.  And so, one of the longest election campaigns will climax.  Over the next few weeks, I’ll blog the campaign, the twists, the turns and the issues that influence where Wexford people will put their tick on February 26^th.  Oops! Have I just let polling day slip? Perhaps with a little bit of humour too! 

All governments have their own dynamic that underpins how they function.  For Albert Reynolds it was the peace process.  For Bertie Ahern it was running counter cyclic policies so that he could be re-elected.  For this government it has been dealing with the impact of Ahearn’s chaos and the collapse in expectations arising from that. I often wonder which is the greater political offence, Ahearn and Cowen destroying the expectations or the wider realisation in the last 5 years that those days may not be coming back?  This recovery is tentative and depends on a wide range of external factors. The government can rightly claim credit for getting state spending in order.  But oil prices, the slow pace of recovery in the EU and low interest rates or the euro sterling exchange rate were not part of the Troika deal.  What the government most certainly can claim is that competent economic management provides confidence for the private sector to invest here and take advantage of those outside factors.  

The destruction of the economy did impact psychologically on people in the same way as a destructive war. During World War 2 the British government had nothing to lose so it set out how the country would be different after the war. Ideas like the NHS, free 3^rd level education, abolition of the 11 plus, new towns, all stem from this era. But we have had little of an alternative vision for Ireland apart from free GP care for under 6’s, Same Sex Marriage and legislating for the X Case.  Locally we’ve seen a new Emergency Department for the hospital, a new Garda Station, new schools being built and new access to the county.  In 2011 the key local issue in Wexford that ranked alongside the economy was the survival of the local hospital.  Once Brendan Howlin entered government the success of that campaign was a given but there was no political pay back to Howlin.   

There has been growing anger in the last 5 years.  Harnessing this anger politically substituted for vision when it came to the opposition.   As a result for some the General Election has been on for the last 5 years.  

Wexford will elect 5 TD’s.  3 outgoing TD’s will contest along with each party except Renua Ireland. A plethora of independents will run too. Interestingly just 1 unsuccessful candidate from 5 years will run again.  That means just 4 of the 14 candidates from 2011 are back this year. What does that tell you about the turnover in personalities and the demands of political life? This time round there are 16 candidates.

Elections are about geography. 3 candidates are from Enniscorthy, 3 from Gorey, 4 from New Ross but a staggering 6 are from Wexford. Elections are about history; Wexford and Enniscorthy Districts have elected TD’s to each Dáil since the foundation of the state.  Whereas General Elections nationally used to be about a 2 and a half party system, Wexford has always seen a 3 way split which in the last 15 years has at times become a 4 way split sharing to all main national parties and beyond to independents.

Personalities often emerge in a campaign and they dominate and create their own momentum.  Twomey and Wallace did that in previous elections.  While Wallace has done his best to keep the rollercoaster going he will do so mostly at the expense of small independents.  In 2011 he took about  85% of the votes cast for independent candidates.  Can he continue to hover up this support and if so what will that mean for other independent candidates? How do they mark themselves out as different?   Just 1 post office has closed in the county in the last 5 years yet we have a candidate opposing post office closures. 

Then there’s the smaller parties.  5 years ago People Before Profit secured almost 800 votes.  Add the progress that the party has made since then and expectations of a sizeable vote of several thousand are realistic. SF won’t like being called small but 2011 saw its vote plummet in Wexford.  Can SF break the 5,000 votes won by John Dwyer in previous elections?  A lot of pressure, not just on outgoing TD’s, but on hopefuls too.  With 2 vacancies there’ll never be another chance for candidates like the one presented in 2016.  Social Democrats are running also.  There are more than a few dark horses who might depending on how the campaign progresses spot a gap and win votes.

But it all depends in turnout, who votes and where they live.  A differential turn out may see one candidate from New Ross or Gorey win. 8 of the 16 candidates are seen as genuine contenders.  Depending on the turnout and how districts vote, we may see someone who might in other circumstance not be in with a shout challenge. 

So the teams are coming out of the dressing room, the band is lining up for the parade.  It won’t be long till the ball is in. Game on!