Posters up

The writ has been moved, the order for polling has been signed and now its time to get visual. Wexford’s bye election picked up a gear as candidates posters (well some of them) were hung around a lamp post on a wet Thursday night.

Wexford town has already posters for Labour’s George Lawlor and Fine Gael’s Veronica Murphy. However the well oiled political machine better know as Fianna Fail seem to be still in neutral in this part of the constituency. It seems that Fianna Fail Cumann members in the south of the county may well be holding firm in their threat not to canvas as a result of the ongoing political row within Fianna Fail.

Fianna Fail , Labour and Sinn Fein put up and remove their own posters. Fine Gael are resourced to have their own erected and removed professionally, yes it appears there is someone who earns his crust hanging posters from a lamp post. So we await the Fianna Fail posters any day soon.

The real talking point is what has happened to the independent candidates for the independent seat that is up for grabs? We have 8 Non Party councillors yet none seem to be interested in running. In the 2016 we had 5 independents and in 2011 we had 4. Has the air in Wexford run out of independent support? The only independent in the race is a Kilkenny based extreme right winger. I can’t see her getting more than a handful of votes.  There were suggestions that one of Wallaces family or newly elected councillor Pat Barden may run but that doesn’t seem to be the case now.

The listed candidates are Malcom Byrne FF, Jim Codd  Aontú, Karin Dubsky Green Party, George Lawlor Labour, Veronica Murphy Fine Gael,  Johnny Mythen SF and Meliosa O’Neill IFP. Or lets look on it from the point of Geography, 2 candidates from Wexford and Gorey and one from Enniscorthy and New Ross with a foreigner from Kilkenny.  

Few issues have emerged other than the future of Rosslare, the funding for mental health services and the prospect for a university based in the south east. Important issues which have featured locally in the last 5 years. Brexit has disappeared off the agenda.

With little media focus on the bye election so far there is every likelihood that the turn out will be low. That’s not to say that there is something going on, there is.

Karin Dubsky will be expected to pick up on the green surge. Aontú’s Jim Codd may well continue to chip away at Sinn Fein’s vote.  FF voters disillusioned with the perception that Lisa McDonald was mistreated may also give him the nod. Not enough to put him into serious contention but certainly enough to put him ahead of Dubsky. Then that leaves Sinn Fein hoping to be ahead of Dubsky and Codd and that they may benefit from transfers.  That brings us to Veronica Murphy. She’ll be looking for a good turn out in New Ross which is traditionally a strong Fianna Fail area . and she may find transfers harder to pick up than she thinks.

Which leaves George Lawlor and Malcolm Byrne. It will all depend on how their respective areas may poll. Gorey is a district from where many workers often commute to work, the long drive home in the dark on Black Friday with the build up to the Toy Show may just keep some voters at home especially if the weather is cold or wet in the evening. Gorey’s population is younger than Wexford’s. Leaving the kids at home to vote on a big night may be a huge ask in the run in to Christmas. I’m certain that nobody will vote after 9pm.

This election may well spring a surprise when people expect it least because  at a general election we elect a government, at a bye election we elect a TD. The winner may well come from Wexford District.