By election or a bye election?

In Ireland the filling of a casual vacancy that arises in the Dáil is a bye-election.  While there may have been little campaigning over the summer, make no mistake there’s been plenty of politicking! No party has yet officially nominated a candidate however that’s not to say that nothing has happened.

The visibility stakes for party leaders kicked off with the appearance of Leo Varadkar to open the Enniscorthy by-pass (not bye-pass?)and then on to Wexford to open likely FG candidate Verona Murphy’s office on the quays. Not to be outdone, Fianna Fail announced its Autumn think in ( I know what you’re thinking too) for Gorey which just happens to be the home town of one of their prospective candidates Malcolm Byrne. Not to be outdone, Fine Gael announced that Leo Varadkar will attend the Kennedy summer School in New Ross next month in Verona Murphy’s hometown.

Wexford stands out from the other 3 constituencies holding bye-elections as it is the home constituency of Labour’s Brendan Howlin. Impacting here will need work and recognition. That’s why geography is important in a large county bye-election.

Park the last local council redraw. There are still in the minds eye of the voters just 4 districts in Wexford based around the county towns; Wexford, Gorey, New Ross and Enniscorthy. The key to winning the bye-election is about winning the local district.

Wexford District has Labour has the largest single party while  Enniscorthy is dominated by Fianna Fail, most notably the Browne family. New Ross has a strong Fianna Fail vote which splinters in different factions. Historically Gorey was the stronghold of the D’arcys but in recent years Fianna through Malcolm Byrne has dominated the local election results.

So this election will be about turn out in the area where candidates come from and who those candidates are is important. Mick Wallace drew votes from all corners of the constituency however the south west of the county is where he polls best. His personal vote was based on his charisma not his work rate. Wallace never held political clinics and made a virtue of his dis-interest in working the constituency. Many of his voters parked their need for representation believing his media image was what Wexford needed politically.

In looking at potential candidates Labour is likely to field popular Wexford Mayor George Lawlor and Verona Murphy will represent Fine Gael.  Lawlor has few peers in both profile and ability to deliver on the ground over the last 15 years.  He’s in his 4^th year as Mayor and knows politics like the back of his hand.  Ms Murphy heads up the national road hauliers association and has a high profile lobbying for their interest in Brexit. I suspect her campaign may well be damaged if Pat Barden a former FG member who ran successfully in the council elections as an independent decides to run.-

Those 3 are likely runners but after that the field is less clear. Fianna Fail have already selected Lisa McDonald as a candidate for a general election as indeed has Johnny Mythen been selected by Sinn Fein. However that is no guarantee for the bye-election. McDonald won her seat after a long campaign in a tight constituency. Malcolm Byrne on the back of a strong European Election campaign is now making his case as a bye-election candidate over Lisa’s head. Foremost in the minds of FF will be the candidates ability to get the vote out in their own district.

Sinn Fein have a different problem. Mythen came within a whisker of taking the last seat 3 years ago at the general election. 3 months ago he lost his council seat despite being personally popular ( that does happen, I know!). Some in Sinn Fein see this as a chance to run a candidate other than Mythen and the word on the ground is that he’s not as secure as many think and that if he does run and doesn’t perform rumblings within the party will see Mythen’s services no longer required.

Another candidate who will put Sinn Fein under pressure will be Aontú’s Jim Codd. He will run so as to establish himself for the General Election which is surely coming around the corner. Codd is based in South Wexford and in the absence of Ger Carthy may well surprise voters with his impact at the ballot box if Sinn Fein do not turn things around.

The big question is will Mick Wallace endorse a candidate and if so who will that be? This may well impact and there may be an independent or two who may throw shapes between now and the closing of nominations in the hope of getting Mick’s approval.

At the last general election there were 17 candidates. Don’t expect anything like that this Autumn.  Turnout was 66%. Don’t expect that either. However what will decide the outcome is where the candidates are based and what turnout will be in the area where they are based.

There’ll be at least 6 runners but not more than 8. Next time I blog, we may well know who the runners are officially and perhaps the ball may be and the game on.

Time for a substitution. Wexford By-election 2019

You may not think it but think again. Wexford remains in election mode. With Brexit and the possibility on the horizon of a General Election in the near future, attention has shifted to the need to re-elect a replacement TD for Mick Wallace since his elevation to the European Parliament.

Politics is all about timing so let’s try to pick a likely election date for the Wexford By-election. The resignation was tendered on July 1^st.  The law requires a bye election within 6 months of the vacancy occurring. The moving of the writ to replace Mick Wallace is the call of his political group Independents for Change. The Dail must approve the holding of the election by a vote. The Dail will not resume until September 17^th so a vote cannot be held until that date. Subsequently the date is fixed by the Minister for Local Government which cannot be less than 30 days after the moving of the writ. That makes the Friday October 18^th earliest date for polling.

However to complicate matters there are 4 by-elections in total to be held. Cork North Central, Fingal and Dublin mid West will go to the polls also. The 4 vacancies impact on the Dáil arithmetic. So it is likely that all 4 will be held on the same day so as to ensure that the possible changes to the figures in the Dail. That could possibly put the date back slightly. However the date will  likely be after the budget so it will be a matter for the Taoiseach to work with what numbers he has got to get one passed.

However the latest possible date is January 1^st.  The idea that carol singers would be chasing canvassers from door to door is ludicrous. That means that December can be ruled out for voting too. The latest date for polling will be Friday November 29^th. So there’s a 5 week window during which we’ll see the first by election in Wexford since Brendan Corish was elected in 1945. Indeed that bye election was one of five others held simultaneously on the same day. There is an interesting parallel to the back drop of those bye-elections as they were held against the backdrop of the end of a world war.  Proof if it is ever needed that once more everything in politics is cyclical.

So let’s look at the likely issues that may influence voters and the likely turnout. Against the backdrop of Brexit there are no prizes for guessing what may be top of the agenda. This morphs locally into the future of Rosslare. Add to that the recent report that finds that proves how the South East has lagged behind the rest of the country when it comes to its share of economic activity. 8.5% of the population but 5.5% of Ireland’s economy. Why? Well it’s simple, there is no university in the region so well educated people are attracted elsewhere. What we know is that the better qualified you are, the higher your income.

But there are the flip side issues as well. Flagging wealth to a relatively older and less well off electorate may not be as politically rewarding as it may seem in the short term. That’s why issues like the freezing of budgets in the area of home care has the potential to be a political banana skin for the government and the independents who support them. During the local election campaign the only thing that shocked me was when I came across a brother and sister who both had heart transplants. One had a further complication which required an amputation. While awaiting for a prosthesis a letter was sent from the HSE to advise in April that the budget in Wexford for 2019 was already used up last April. In the meantime the couple had to try their best to cope with an impossible situation. I made representations but to no avail.

The potential for a political land mine is clearly there in Wexford. Cutting home care packages impacts more in Wexford simply because we have a greater reliance on social welfare and assistance here.   Polling will also coincide with the annual offer of school places to the incoming cohort in 2020. Traditionally this has always brought waiting list as well as disappointment to many parents especially in Wexford District.

T
here is only one way that we don’t have a by-election and that’s if Leo Vardakar calls a general election. There is the option of going to the park in September before the Dail returns and calling one for October. In my book you’d be looking at a date between Friday October 4^th until 11^th.  That would however mean that the budget would be pushed back until November which would at least give certainty to the figures for 2020 as it would be after Brexit day on Halloween.

However all that could change too! Tonight I see the countdown clock is back on TV news flagging how many days are left until Britain leaves. What if it doesn’t or can’t leave on that day?

Perhaps we will be getting a countdown clock for an Irish General Election? Whatever the outcome it’s likely that the winner may not get long to settle in Leinster House before they are out again knocking the doors.

Next time I’ll look at the likely candidates and talk about possible turn out and geography

Ground Hog Day!

A little over 2 years ago I stepped out to knock doors for the Labour Party as part of its #RebuildLabour week end. It was all about getting Local activists back talking to voters and getting coverage. And so it was at St Patrick’s Day week end, I knocked the doors dealing with local issues. Knocking doors became a huge part of my life over the last 2 years. 

The reason was simple. There was no local election and it was about building up the Labour Party. The party could only go one way and that was up. Despite that we got slaughtered on social media by the cynics and trolls.

Summer holidays, mid- term breaks became key dates in my calendar during which I would knock doors, deal with issues, contact the council on behalf of constituents. Along the way I was appointed a Peace Commissioner which was a great help for many people who needed forms signed and verified.

2017 turned into 2018 and there was an expectation that when 2019 would arrive the work would stand to me at the ballot box. It didn’t turn out like that. In 2014 I was the last candidate standing at the final count (despite the illusion one newly elected councillor has that it was himself). I was eliminated at 979 votes with all the other candidates elected. In 2019 I was the last candidate standing at the final count with 989 votes when all the other remaining candidates were elected.

 I’ve been in politics for over 18 years at this stage, from establishing my residents committee to schools board of managements to VEC and council chamber.  My views don’t change. As a student I spent a Summer holiday campaign against the 8^th amendment. To see it gone was a great achievement and to have worked fully on that campaign in Wexford was an honour not a box ticking exercise for my political CV.

I am a life long believer in social democracy and equality born into a largely female family in an era when it was a man’s world. That’s probably why I spent so much time in recent years as a Director and Chairperson of Wexford Women’s Refuge.  I believe in life long learning and whether I realise it or not I’m still learning especially when it comes to the area of domestic violence.

I still remember being lectured in the 1980’s about global warming and Carbon dioxide and its potential for destruction on the world.  Environmental politics has been part of my DNA from working on EIS in the 1980’s to valuing the need for retaining our rail network if only to reduce CO2 emissions.

Politics is not all about elections and the counting of votes. Politics is about solving the issues that impact on people, listening to them, listening to advice and taking a decision.  Politics is not just about providing a community where there is a safety net for all but it is about working out how within that net you cover all the holes. Sometimes it is hard, there is no perfect community with a perfect administration to back you up.

Winning elections is not the be all and end all of how to contribute to your community. When I was defeated in 2014, I posted on facebook that the only difference it will make is that I won’t receive a representational allowance for what I will do. After a few months I remarked to my wife that it was great to have our winter evenings together and not to be going out.

Slowly the drug that is politics drew me back so that by 2017 I was back in the thick of things knocking doors. While some councillors were  posting pictures of themselves on social media enjoying the snow with their family, I tried to substitute passing on vital information about power outages, water tanker deliveries and restoration of services. Today it is very much a case of cold turkey.

So thank you to my family who have knocked the doors along with me over the past few years. I never stood alone and we never stood back. I’m delighted for George and Maura. They will make a great team on Wexford County Council but I am so sorry to see Robert Ireton lose his seat, sad for Bridin Moloney and Nicky Wafer who fought great campaigns but lost too.Thank you to the  Labour members who canvased with me in the last 4 campaigns.

A political party label gets a candidate to the ballot paper but it is people who vote and it is those people you strive to serve regardless. That is what a councillor should be. Some are no doubt in line for a rude awakening when the penny drops when that reality strikes. It’s just that I am not going to be in the room to hear it ding!

Thanks for the votes, thanks for the memories! Taking a break for the Summer holidays..

Tales from the canvas 2.0

Last week of the canvas and we’re on the run in to polling day. The campaign has moved up a gear clearly. Campaigning is not what it used to be. Every campaign throws up its curiosity.  A while back it was common place to see notices on the doors to tell Fianna Fail not to call. Nowadays they’re gone.

But to the keen observer it is now clear that the electorate prefer not to discuss national issues. If you discuss local issues you’ll switch on a gear in some people that they never knew was there. From the construction at the Crescent in Wexford to the road to Castlebridge and the ongoing disruption due to broadband, local issues are back with a bang.

The other observation is that often homes are vacant when you call. The driveway is empty and curtains pulled, so it is a case of “sorry I missed you”. Two reasons spring to mind. One is that the homeowner is out at work. Activity outside the home  means economic activity. That’s a welcome change from 5 years ago.  Or just maybe could it be that once or twice the owner sees who’s at the door and prefers not to answer regardless of which party if any that is calling?

The weather is good for canvassing, rarely has a day been lost due to rain.  Labour is canvasing as a team of 3.  Other parties make their own arrangements. The late declaration of another independent is interesting. Micéal Ó Drisceoil is the only independent to put up posters and he may well have spotted a niche which may affect how independently minded voters might act.  Had his declaration come earlier he may well have given the established field a run for their money. It is hard to catch up when you declare late but let’s wait and see, nobody has voted yet.

So for the record there are now 14 candidates on the ballot paper

LAB        Bell Maura

AON      Cole Elaine

SF           Forde Tom

FG           Hegarty John

IND        Hynes Davy

IND        Kelly Leonard

FF           Laffan Garry

LAB        Lawlor George

FF           Murphy Colin

IND        Ó Drisceol Mícheál

FG           Reville  Angela

LAB        Ryan Joe

FG                           Walsh Ger

SOL-PBP               Walsh Tony

Polling is on Friday next between 7 AM and 10 PM

A gallery of tributes

Sometimes life hits you with reality and you’re floored. In life Denis Collins delighted in surprising you. His sudden death was no different. Doubtless Denis would smile this morning full in the knowledge that once more he caught so many people out with his sudden passing.

You’d be out on a litter pick as part of tidy towns and as everyone was heading for a cuppa, Denis would find another lane full of empty cans and bottles. You’d turn up at the arts centre to find there was an additional artist added to the bill at the last moment.

 And there were the stories. Once Denis was in the mid west of the US taking an internal flight on a small aircraft. As he boarded he noticed that he was one of the few passengers not carrying a rifle! “So” asks Denis to the pilot who was also the air steward and the flight engineer, “Is this kind of thing normal”? “Absolutely “ was the response. “They put the bullets in the hold in their luggage”!

Denis was a legend. He encouraged so many people into the arts. He wasn’t just the owner of a gallery,  he saw talent and wanted to nurture it. Be it music, painting, photography, sculpture, poetry, dance. You name it, Denis encouraged it.

Denis took over from the late Chris Culleton as Chairperson of Wexford Tidy Towns. Chris died young 18 months ago. Now  Denis’s sudden death follows soon after. Denis embraced life in all its diversity; the arts, environment, politics and culture. With Denis where one stopped and the other started is anyone’s guess.

The Wexford Denis grew up in was fundamentally a different place to what  it is now. He opposed the 8^th Amendment in 1983 and supported Divorce in 1986. Two difficult things to stand up on back in the day. He understood the need for a broad political coalition between progressive politicians and straddled the divide between left wing parties that can often be bitter, petty and negative. There was so much that he stood above and stood aside from. That was why he was so loved and regarded.

I’ll miss his good humour, positivity, wisdom, intelligence and basic decency.  So I’ll finish with another story, Denis would have liked that.

A few years ago I entered Wexford Tidy Towns in a competition behind his back. Lo and behold on the night we were having a celebration for winning the Silver medal in the national competition, I learnt we’d won it. We were going to get free return tickets for up to 50 people on a train to anywhere in Ireland!

So over a few pints I revealed our good fortune to Denis.  Delighted we organised to visit Skerries the following Spring as Skerries had won the overall national competition. On the appointed day, Denis took us off on the morning train and after a change at Connolly there we were. As we arrived at the station one eagle eyed member of the group spotted a skip and curiously poked the debris to retrieve an Infant de Prague. Denis surveyed the scene and said to leave it for when we were returning.

As luck would have it on returning the statue was still there and tucked under the forelock of the volunteer was Wexford bound. As we had an hour to spare waiting for the connection to Wexford we made our way to the pub in Connolly Station. Just as we went in the door Denis turned to the volunteer who was still  carrying the statue. “What do you think you’re doing? You can’t bring a child into the pub at this time of evening”.

Every town should have a Denis Collins

Rest well Denis in whichever secret garden you are now.