The day of the bastards.

Hands up who remembers John Major? Over twenty years ago he was being hounded by the Eurosceptic wing that Margaret Thatcher had bequeathed him.  He was overheard at a briefing referring to them as “Bastards”. The eurosceptics were exemplified by Norman Tebbitt whose famous reminder to anyone looking for work was to get on their bike.  Lots of Irish took that advice and came to Britain.  

Well the bastards are now in the driving seat and it's on your bike time again. Top of the list is David Cameron. So let’s look at how Ireland has changed since the bastards were undermining the then Tory leader.  There is a fiction that free movement of people and trade originated as a result of the Good Friday Agreement. That’s wrong.  So lets nail this myth that it was always easy to cross from North to South.

I’ve spent most of my life crossing the border, I spent 2 really happy years working for a cross border body during the Northern Troubles. I crossed the border practically everyday in that period.  Free movement across the border was hugely curtailed during the troubles. Before the troubles you stopped at each custom post and explained where you were going before a customs man decided whether or not he'd search the car.

During the troubles, northern custom posts were bombed by the IRA and then replaced with military checkpoints on main roads.  Smaller country roads had bridges blocked and closed where they crossed from North to South.  The suggestion that a common travel area existed simply meant that no passport was asked for. Despite it not being the law at the time to carry a driver’s license, if you were stopped at a military checkpoint you were always asked for your drivers license. And there were huge delays getting through checkpoints.  As you drove north from Dundalk there was a constant line of trucks at custom clearance.  There was a cottage industry of cafes feeding truck drivers while they waited for the paper work to be completed.
And then there was the Prevention of Terrorism Act, brought in after the Birmingham Pub bombs.  As a student I was always singled out to fill in the form when I arrived of a boat in Wales before I could continue onward.

Masstricht provided for free movement of goods and the removal of custom posts along the border.  That treaty came into effect in 1992. Britain is now opting out of that.  Doing business up north or over in Wales? Fill the flask, you’ll need a cuppa as you wait, the coffee shops are long closed. 

Smuggling was effectively a way of life for many along the border exploiting differences in prices north and south. A collapse in the value of sterling will attract shoppers north however shopping may be the least of our worries.  Everything from laundered diesel to rubbish, livestock to fire works have moved illicitly in the past over the frontier. Dubious characters are behind this.  Removing the economic border left them stumped.

What we should be concerned about into the future is the potential for people smuggling.  The Leave campaign says that free movement can be kept. The only border between the EU and the UK will run from Carlingford to Derry.  But when they say free movement, free movement for whom? Citizens of the Republic of Ireland? EU citizens? or all citizens?  Nobody has explained what that free movement means.  

Either side of the border you will find people keen to make money smuggling people to the UK.

We in Wexford remember only too well what that might involve.  Let’s hope I’m wrong 

So last night’s historic vote isn’t the overthrow of any establishment. It’s the return of the bastards. 

Gentleman Gus, Wexford's worker

The one thing about really good local politicians is that they rise above everything. That’s why they are so successful year after year.  Few in local politics in Wexford had a record to rival the late Gus Byrne.

Gus was a man who was big on vision.  Gus really cared about Wexford.  At one of his last Borough Council meetings in 2009 the local development plan was being signed off on.  Gus was strongly supportive.  To him the aspiration that Wexford could become a small city would be the crowning glory on all that he stood for since he first entered the local council in 1974.  He was never prouder than when elected Mayor of Wexford on 2 different occasions.

Gus was never negative in a council chamber.  He found it hard to have a go at any other serving councillor.  He was the master at positivity always smiling and laughing.   Gus ran in his last local election in 2004.  It was a challenging time for Fianna Fail so Gus decided to advertise wide and get the word around to his supporters.  Wexford Bus had just established its town service at the time and Gus Byrne spotted an opening.  Within days of the election campaign starting the back of the local bus was emblazoned with Gus’s picture alongside the logo “Hop on the bus, Vote for Gus”.   Gus had no problem holding his borough council seat.

Gus was a Fianna Fail man to his fingertips. Turning your back on your own wasn’t  for Gus because for Gus, his own was the town he served.  He served leaders from Jack Lynch to Brian Cowen with distinction. On one occasion in the 1980’s he came within a whisker of taking a Dail seat for Fianna Fail. Gus couldn’t just show a clean pair of heals to the political opposition.  As a top flight amateur cyclist there was many a competitor whose only sight of Gus was as they looked up to see him hunched over the handle bars and accelerating out of sight.

Gus Byrne was committed to life saving not just in his job as an ambulance man but wherever there was danger.  Wexford’s beaches each year attract tourists from far and near. Each year the local life saving club holds an international competition at Ferrybank.  The main trophy awarded to the winners was named after and presented by Gus Byrne.

So soon after Fergie Kehoe of FF died, it is sad to be penning these few words.  Gus was personally very good to me in the council chamber on one particular occasion when it would have been easier for him to go with the flow. Gus had a wider vision about local politics that may be out of place nowadays, Yet it was one that worked in the chamber.  It was this; Once you get your feet under the table after an election, you work for Wexford with everyone else regardless.

Gus Byrne has more than earned his place in municipal history. Gus is photographed above second on the left as a competitor in the Ras Tailteann in 1959.  May he rest in peace. My sympathies to his wife Nancy and his family.

The Final Frame

There is very little in politics that shocks me.  But to hear on a bright Saturday just as Spring is attempting to burst from the soil of a sudden death of someone younger than you, that shocks.  As I get older I presume I’m a little naïve and instead should expect to be shocked more often.

So hearing that Councillor Fergie Kehoe has tragically died is an immense shock.  Fergie served on Wexford County Council and subsequently on Wexford Borough Council. That’s where our paths crossed.  Fergie sat opposite me.  Fergie had a twinkle in his eye and a smile on his face always.  He had a great sense of humour and never held a political grudge…… even against me!  

Fergie was a gentleman.  It was only in the last few years that he sat on the stand at the St Patricks Day parade.  Usually he’d be selling ice cream or popcorn or coffee from his premises “Sidetracks”.  Fergie was a local authority member for 9 years. He was someone who put Wexford first.  

One particular incident I recall was during the count at the last local election.  Having read the first count I concluded rightly that I was not going to be elected.  Fergie in the course of the afternoon told me “Don’t lose heart you can still make it”. So we chatted about how he thought that transfers may on subsequent counts benefit me.  I was realistic and said I couldn’t see myself winning.  Fergie responded “Wexford has to elect 5 councillors, don’t lose heart, think positive, if not now when?”

Someday Fergie may be right about my chances of election and if he is I’ll say a quiet thank you to the big guy who played snooker so well. May Crosstown’s soft soil lie gently on your head.  

Whatever you say, say nothing.

Usually the post general election period sees moves towards government formation with possible combinations entering exploratory talks.  Do you remember the old expression; “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” or “the negotiations teams have left matters for final decision to the party leaders”? 

You see here’s the rub. Everything is agreed but nobody has the backbone to admit it. Thursday will see everyone going through the motions until after St Patricks Day.  I suspect we will have a new government in the run in to Easter.  There is every incentive to form one.  The historic anniversary of 1916 and the sense of occasion appeal to the core of FF members.  Moreover what would the outgoing Minister for Education possibly say in the set piece speech to Teacher Union conferences during Easter Week? Such speeches set out the ministers policy in the year ahead and are the centrepiece of conference week. Jan O’Sullivan can’t deliver any such a speech and there is a need for a clear line from Marlboro St on junior cycle reform and the restoration of posts and increments. The more I think about it the more I believe we may get movement when the Taoiseach is away in the US for St Patricks Day to visit President Obama for the final time.

And as the old adage goes, when the cat’s away the mice will play.  It may well be by the time that Enda Kenny returns to Ireland the negotiators will have signed off on their programme and referred it upstairs to the party leaders.

FF and FG are sniffing one another over in the same way as an inquisitive terrier hangs around a rabbit hole.  The mood music is that they are the only game in town.  And here’s the really extraordinary bit.  Those who are cheering them the loudest are mostly those who won the argument; Sinn Fein AAA and the left on water charges and property tax. 

They say the numbers now don’t stack up.  A few weeks ago they said that there were 3 blocs, FF, FG and the Right2Change group.  Now SF and the left say do the maths a Right2change bloc hasn’t enough votes. 

So let’s take them up on the offer and do the maths. At the minute FG has 50, FF 44 and SF 23. But add in 6 PBP/AAA, 4 Independents for Change and the following independents who are all left wing and oppose water and property charges; Seamus Healey, Catherine Connolly, Maureen O’Sullivan, Finian McGrath, John Halligan, Thomas Pringle and Katherine Zappone.  That gives you a block of 40 TD’s with SF at its core and if the Social Democrats who have 3 TD’s opposed to water charges are included it could be level with FF if an FF TD is elected Ceann Comhairle.  If SF and this coalition went to FF they would be in just as good a bargaining position as FG since many independent TD’s may not be interested in holding ministerial office.  As Mary Lou herself says as she quotes Bobby Sands, “Everyone has their role to play”,  Is this merely a slogan or does it mean anything at all?

You see since the results of the General Election there has been considerable spin much of it encouraged by a left with little appetite for government.  That of course means that once a new government is formed, the vow of silence will be broken and all the answers to all the problems facing the country will once more tumble from the lips of those on the left.  Now that real issues are on the table, Paul Murphy and Richard Boyd Barrett are playing schtum on what should happen next.  They are going round with their fingers crossed behind their backs that the task of solving problems never ends up on their laps. It is for the left very much a case of reverse engines before we hit the iceberg.  Only in Ireland does the left interpret electoral success as a failure to secure a mandate.  If not now, then when, if ever?

Another Election? To be sure, to be sure!

Only in Ireland would it happen that parties that win an election tell you that they don’t want to go into government.  One wonders what the men and women of 1916 would think ? In 1916 Irish men couldn’t elect their own government. Irish women of course were not allowed vote until 1918 and when they voted they spoke with a clear voice. 

100 years on those who lay claim most to the heritage of 1916 are first to tell the electorate the day after we’ve voted that they’re more interested in their parties and protecting their political position than the country they claim to love.  Today the centenary has become an embarrassing reminder of how the vision of the proclamation has been discarded in favour of political expediency and short term political advantage.

I’d an inkling what was about to happen yesterday at the count.  During a long conversation with a candidate whose posters called for transparency in government he told me he was opposed to his party entering government and that it was Fianna Fail and Fine Gaels job to govern.  The Social Democrats never told the electorate that on the doorsteps when they were collecting an impressive vote of over 2,000. 

You see this wasn’t a snap election, it’s been flagged for years.  Opinions have been well formed Suggestions now that we should have another in the next few months and that somehow there will be a different result with one party getting an overall majority are unrealistic.  This is the result whether we like it or not.  Fine Gael and Labour lost 50 seats.  An opinion poll showed 60% want a change of government.  In anyone’s language that means those who won have to form the government.  That’s how a democracy works.  It is time to give the people the change they want.

Anything else is farce and will rapidly wind up the electorate the wrong way.  The mistakes that undermined Labour in the last government were made before they entered office.  History is now repeating itself in the case of Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, AAA and Social Democrats.

When you organise under the banner of Right to  Change you either keep that promise and deliver change or you let down people.  All these parties shared policies on water charges and property tax before the election. Why now are they finding even the thought of forming a government impossible? 

If 100 years ago a Scottish Socialist who didn't speak Irish could see common ground with a conservative Gaelgoir school teacher in developing a fledgling state, what's the real problem now

?

Against the tide

One Summer’s evening in 1916, William Martin Murphy was sipping from a drink as he looked out over the 18^th hole of a South Dublin golf course.  Weeks before had seen the execution of James Connolly and the destruction of Liberty Hall by a gunboat. The ITGWU funds were down to about £8,000 and membership was in decline.  James Larkin was in exile in the US and the bosses had beaten the union in the lock out.  He could afford to smile as he remarked to one of his buddies; “Well that’s the last we’ll hear from the Labour Party”.

Nothing in politics is inevitable.  5 years ago the conventional wisdom was that Fianna Fail were heading for the knackers yard.  If you drove from Wexford to the border you could pass through just 3 constituencies where FF had Dail representatives. Make no mistake about it.  Today’s drubbing is not the end of Labour. An end of an era, yes but not the end of a party.  Labour retains the number of seats after a hammering that the Greens had when they entered office.

There appears to have been 2 elections.  One for government but another for opposition.  I’m amazed that so many on the left are not interested in forming a government despite a mandate.  What was the point in asking people to vote for you and telling people you’d represent them before an election and after the election turn around and say to the 2 main parties, work away? 

Be careful for what you wish for.  A grand coalition with grand ego’s?  No thanks!  There are 3 blocs. Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Right to Change.  It’s clear that people don’t want either Labour or Fine Gael in office.  That’s the result of today’s verdict from the polls.  Enda Kenny will not hang in as Fine Gael party leader and Taosieach for too long more.  Fine Gael may justifiably replace him with Frances Fitzgerald and commence negotiations with Fianna Fail.  Michéal Martin has his own issues.  One wing of FF wants to embrace SF while the other wing prefers FG.  Frances Fitzgerald might be a more awkward and unpredictable customer for FF than Enda Kenny.  Gerry Adams will continue to dominate SF.  FF and FG backed themselves into corners on coalition.  Right to Change may horse trade with some independents and the trots to build up a bloc of TD’s that is greater than FF.   

I suspect that if the Dail refuses to elect a Taoiseach and the President is asked to dissolve and call elections that he will refuse unless it is clear that another election will produce a decisive result.  We’re heading for either a constitutional crisis or a democratic vacuum.  In that context which house of the Oireachtas has the greatest credibility?   

So where to now for Labour? The party may well be bloodied not beyond repair.  It’s back to the drawing boards and just as 100 years ago the Labour movement had to knuckle down and rebuild on the landscape it found itself on, so too will todays party.  Time to surprise the chattering classes in their golf clubs!

Confused by the polls? Take a chill pill

4 days left.  With the finishing line in sight. Some are already calling the result in Wexford; Browne, Byrne, Howlin, Kehoe and Wallace. That’s the result alphabetically, if you believe the polls! Lets get back to that later on.

Aoife Byrne from FF seems to be running a great campaign judging by her facebook and twitter feed. In a week when Deirdre Wadding quoted Father Ted, It seems Aoife herself had a Bishop Brennan moment when he gave her a blessing outside Wexford Park.  Unfortunately that spiritual fervour was absent from the pitch as Wexford came up short against Clare.  GAA stalwart and the man who delivered each pitch development in the county, Ger Carthy, or Mayor Ger Carthy as he now likes to be known on his posters, left the game as soon as it started.  Seems he had to rush to a nearby housing estate to move his van as the vehicle was causing a nuisance to local residents.  Good to see Cllr Fergie Kehoe back in action.  I was inclined to visit him in hospital but didn’t as I felt he wanted to get better!

It’s been a low key campaign in Wexford with few issues.  Mick Wallace has yet to visit many of the town’s doors.  The absence of any clear boundary on FG has seen FG candidates travel everywhere and yet nowhere.  Paul Kehoe and Michael D’arcy were both in Rosslare in the last few days and yet nobody from FG has been in my estate.  The absence of live issues may damage the chances of a minor candidate springing a surprise but it may also mean that national issues are more likely to dominate.  This plays into the hands of Wallace and the main political parties.  But it’s not all over, not by a long shot.

5 years ago in the presidential election at the same point Fianna Fail didn’t have the balls to officially run a candidate but hid behind someone who was, well, Fianna Fail to his fingertips.  He was ahead by a mile and thought that nothing could go wrong.  History tells us something else. Believe nothing until the votes are counted.

For the first 2 weeks of the campaign polls tell us there was little change in opinion. Now they tell us something different.  I’ve always put more trust on constituency polls than national polls.  When faced with a name there is often a sense of either a record or a geographical need for a TD.  People will vote for a name regardless of the party.

I head a story about one local woman who was read the poll options by phone from a UK based market research company who were outsourced the work from Ireland and they admitted Labour until the woman asked if Labour was an option? “Oh Yeah” was the response.

The only question is now what the turnout will be.  A high turnout will favour a change of government, a low turn out will favour Labour and Fine Gael.  While national polls on party support are unreliable, the most interesting figure of any poll I’ve seen is a poll from about 2 weeks ago where 60% said they want to see a change of government.  When 60% of people come to that conclusion it’s hard to argue.  The people always get what they want at election time, not necessarily what they need.

Many have remarked that this election is a lot like the 1980’s.  Certainly it is, but which part of the 1980’s is what I’d like to know? The early part with instability and 3 elections within 18 months or the later part with a Tallaght Strategy with FF & FG cosying up to impose fiscal rectitude when Labour won just 6.5% and 12 seats? After that came the coalition where FF ditched a core value, single party government.  So whose core value is facing the chop now? FG not accepting FF or FF not accepting SF?  Political heaves and intrigue were part and parcel of that power play.  We may be on the cusp of something dramatic.

For Enda Kenny or Michéal Martin something has to give.  My guess is that a battered FG will swop Kenny for Frances Fitzgerald who will do the deal that needs to be done with Michéal Martin who will face his own internal critics.  Remember he has never replaced his deputy leader who walked out the door as he was opposed to the Stability and Growth Pact.  O’Cuiv was, to quote PJ Mara, nibbling at the leaders bum. 

Labour will have a long look at itself and see where it wants to go in the future with a new leader while SF will ask themselves what went wrong once more.  They dropped by 10% in opinion polls in opposition. That mirrors Labour 6 years ago.  Will SF members give Gerry Adams his long service award and dispatch him back to his summer home in Donegal to write his memoires of the long war which he never took part in?

For Trotskyites, they’ve had an open goal to kick into for 8 years and still have not made the break through while a Healy Rae can pop up at a fortnights notice and win a seat in Kerry?  What does that say about the opposition and more importantly the voters? Once the ballots are counted, its then that the real questions will be asked. But will we get answers?