Against the tide

One Summer’s evening in 1916, William Martin Murphy was sipping from a drink as he looked out over the 18^th hole of a South Dublin golf course.  Weeks before had seen the execution of James Connolly and the destruction of Liberty Hall by a gunboat. The ITGWU funds were down to about £8,000 and membership was in decline.  James Larkin was in exile in the US and the bosses had beaten the union in the lock out.  He could afford to smile as he remarked to one of his buddies; “Well that’s the last we’ll hear from the Labour Party”.

Nothing in politics is inevitable.  5 years ago the conventional wisdom was that Fianna Fail were heading for the knackers yard.  If you drove from Wexford to the border you could pass through just 3 constituencies where FF had Dail representatives. Make no mistake about it.  Today’s drubbing is not the end of Labour. An end of an era, yes but not the end of a party.  Labour retains the number of seats after a hammering that the Greens had when they entered office.

There appears to have been 2 elections.  One for government but another for opposition.  I’m amazed that so many on the left are not interested in forming a government despite a mandate.  What was the point in asking people to vote for you and telling people you’d represent them before an election and after the election turn around and say to the 2 main parties, work away? 

Be careful for what you wish for.  A grand coalition with grand ego’s?  No thanks!  There are 3 blocs. Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Right to Change.  It’s clear that people don’t want either Labour or Fine Gael in office.  That’s the result of today’s verdict from the polls.  Enda Kenny will not hang in as Fine Gael party leader and Taosieach for too long more.  Fine Gael may justifiably replace him with Frances Fitzgerald and commence negotiations with Fianna Fail.  Michéal Martin has his own issues.  One wing of FF wants to embrace SF while the other wing prefers FG.  Frances Fitzgerald might be a more awkward and unpredictable customer for FF than Enda Kenny.  Gerry Adams will continue to dominate SF.  FF and FG backed themselves into corners on coalition.  Right to Change may horse trade with some independents and the trots to build up a bloc of TD’s that is greater than FF.   

I suspect that if the Dail refuses to elect a Taoiseach and the President is asked to dissolve and call elections that he will refuse unless it is clear that another election will produce a decisive result.  We’re heading for either a constitutional crisis or a democratic vacuum.  In that context which house of the Oireachtas has the greatest credibility?   

So where to now for Labour? The party may well be bloodied not beyond repair.  It’s back to the drawing boards and just as 100 years ago the Labour movement had to knuckle down and rebuild on the landscape it found itself on, so too will todays party.  Time to surprise the chattering classes in their golf clubs!

The Troika is here

You spend a long time waiting for one and then 3 comes along is a usual jibe in Dublin to bus drivers.  You can now add new political parties to that.  After the establishment of Renua Ireland and the Alliance of Independents, we now have the Social Democrats. 

Their establishment is the latest attempt by Independent TD’s to prize away support from the Independent block of votes as you get closer to the General Election.  The troika of founding TD’s Stephen Donnelly, Roisin Shortall and Catherine Murphy are able people with a good track record. 

A well managed presentation built around the name social democrats dominated headlines. It’s clear that a lot of thought has gone into the initial launch.   While the aspirations need to be backed up with policies, there is little that would separate Social Democrats from most Labour members or voters.  Many Fine Gael people claim a social democratic allegiance as they look to the Just Society of Declan Costello and Garret Fitzgerald.  Some Fianna Fail people see themselves as social democratic too.  So nobody has ownership of the term social democrat.

The possible base is middle class, home owners, who are employed.  Such voters might be normally supportive of Labour and in many cases are public servants.  But when the new party says its core value is to have an efficient and accessible public service, that may just set off a bell or two in the minds of some public servants, who’ve weathered a storm in the last 7 years as to what exactly the social democrats mean by that. 

Stephen Donnelly was on radio later talking about social democracy.  As he said himself he’s not a political scientist.  That’s true, in fact Stephen worked in the World Bank.  The term Social Democrat still has a ring of the Gang of 4 in the 1980’s who split from Labour in the UK and guaranteed Thatcher whooping majorities to bring about the deregulated economy that did so much damage in later years.   Much of the globalisation agenda was in fact championed by the World Bank at this time, although to be fair to Stephen, it was quite some time before he started work there.

Of course believing in social democracy and being a social democrat are not mutually inclusive.  The concept of social democracy is about social control over the money flow, investing in social infrastructure, organisation of the economy around the needs of communities using Keynesian economics.  I didn’t see as much of what I believe Social democracy to be as I expected.

 What Social Democrats in fact highlight are possible solutions for those in difficulty with their mortgage and the need for an enterprise culture.  Yes they’re close to Labour when it comes to children under 6, tackling the housing crisis which Alan Kelly is now targeting extra money, transparency in decision making and a lot more.

But let’s wait and see the policies they roll out to attain the objectives that are core to the party. Today it was just broad strokes.  The party has a job to organise candidates, policy and a base.  The party has to decide who’ll lead in what areas.  A good start but where will it lead?