Against the tide

One Summer’s evening in 1916, William Martin Murphy was sipping from a drink as he looked out over the 18^th hole of a South Dublin golf course.  Weeks before had seen the execution of James Connolly and the destruction of Liberty Hall by a gunboat. The ITGWU funds were down to about £8,000 and membership was in decline.  James Larkin was in exile in the US and the bosses had beaten the union in the lock out.  He could afford to smile as he remarked to one of his buddies; “Well that’s the last we’ll hear from the Labour Party”.

Nothing in politics is inevitable.  5 years ago the conventional wisdom was that Fianna Fail were heading for the knackers yard.  If you drove from Wexford to the border you could pass through just 3 constituencies where FF had Dail representatives. Make no mistake about it.  Today’s drubbing is not the end of Labour. An end of an era, yes but not the end of a party.  Labour retains the number of seats after a hammering that the Greens had when they entered office.

There appears to have been 2 elections.  One for government but another for opposition.  I’m amazed that so many on the left are not interested in forming a government despite a mandate.  What was the point in asking people to vote for you and telling people you’d represent them before an election and after the election turn around and say to the 2 main parties, work away? 

Be careful for what you wish for.  A grand coalition with grand ego’s?  No thanks!  There are 3 blocs. Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Right to Change.  It’s clear that people don’t want either Labour or Fine Gael in office.  That’s the result of today’s verdict from the polls.  Enda Kenny will not hang in as Fine Gael party leader and Taosieach for too long more.  Fine Gael may justifiably replace him with Frances Fitzgerald and commence negotiations with Fianna Fail.  Michéal Martin has his own issues.  One wing of FF wants to embrace SF while the other wing prefers FG.  Frances Fitzgerald might be a more awkward and unpredictable customer for FF than Enda Kenny.  Gerry Adams will continue to dominate SF.  FF and FG backed themselves into corners on coalition.  Right to Change may horse trade with some independents and the trots to build up a bloc of TD’s that is greater than FF.   

I suspect that if the Dail refuses to elect a Taoiseach and the President is asked to dissolve and call elections that he will refuse unless it is clear that another election will produce a decisive result.  We’re heading for either a constitutional crisis or a democratic vacuum.  In that context which house of the Oireachtas has the greatest credibility?   

So where to now for Labour? The party may well be bloodied not beyond repair.  It’s back to the drawing boards and just as 100 years ago the Labour movement had to knuckle down and rebuild on the landscape it found itself on, so too will todays party.  Time to surprise the chattering classes in their golf clubs!