Confused by the polls? Take a chill pill

4 days left.  With the finishing line in sight. Some are already calling the result in Wexford; Browne, Byrne, Howlin, Kehoe and Wallace. That’s the result alphabetically, if you believe the polls! Lets get back to that later on.

Aoife Byrne from FF seems to be running a great campaign judging by her facebook and twitter feed. In a week when Deirdre Wadding quoted Father Ted, It seems Aoife herself had a Bishop Brennan moment when he gave her a blessing outside Wexford Park.  Unfortunately that spiritual fervour was absent from the pitch as Wexford came up short against Clare.  GAA stalwart and the man who delivered each pitch development in the county, Ger Carthy, or Mayor Ger Carthy as he now likes to be known on his posters, left the game as soon as it started.  Seems he had to rush to a nearby housing estate to move his van as the vehicle was causing a nuisance to local residents.  Good to see Cllr Fergie Kehoe back in action.  I was inclined to visit him in hospital but didn’t as I felt he wanted to get better!

It’s been a low key campaign in Wexford with few issues.  Mick Wallace has yet to visit many of the town’s doors.  The absence of any clear boundary on FG has seen FG candidates travel everywhere and yet nowhere.  Paul Kehoe and Michael D’arcy were both in Rosslare in the last few days and yet nobody from FG has been in my estate.  The absence of live issues may damage the chances of a minor candidate springing a surprise but it may also mean that national issues are more likely to dominate.  This plays into the hands of Wallace and the main political parties.  But it’s not all over, not by a long shot.

5 years ago in the presidential election at the same point Fianna Fail didn’t have the balls to officially run a candidate but hid behind someone who was, well, Fianna Fail to his fingertips.  He was ahead by a mile and thought that nothing could go wrong.  History tells us something else. Believe nothing until the votes are counted.

For the first 2 weeks of the campaign polls tell us there was little change in opinion. Now they tell us something different.  I’ve always put more trust on constituency polls than national polls.  When faced with a name there is often a sense of either a record or a geographical need for a TD.  People will vote for a name regardless of the party.

I head a story about one local woman who was read the poll options by phone from a UK based market research company who were outsourced the work from Ireland and they admitted Labour until the woman asked if Labour was an option? “Oh Yeah” was the response.

The only question is now what the turnout will be.  A high turnout will favour a change of government, a low turn out will favour Labour and Fine Gael.  While national polls on party support are unreliable, the most interesting figure of any poll I’ve seen is a poll from about 2 weeks ago where 60% said they want to see a change of government.  When 60% of people come to that conclusion it’s hard to argue.  The people always get what they want at election time, not necessarily what they need.

Many have remarked that this election is a lot like the 1980’s.  Certainly it is, but which part of the 1980’s is what I’d like to know? The early part with instability and 3 elections within 18 months or the later part with a Tallaght Strategy with FF & FG cosying up to impose fiscal rectitude when Labour won just 6.5% and 12 seats? After that came the coalition where FF ditched a core value, single party government.  So whose core value is facing the chop now? FG not accepting FF or FF not accepting SF?  Political heaves and intrigue were part and parcel of that power play.  We may be on the cusp of something dramatic.

For Enda Kenny or Michéal Martin something has to give.  My guess is that a battered FG will swop Kenny for Frances Fitzgerald who will do the deal that needs to be done with Michéal Martin who will face his own internal critics.  Remember he has never replaced his deputy leader who walked out the door as he was opposed to the Stability and Growth Pact.  O’Cuiv was, to quote PJ Mara, nibbling at the leaders bum. 

Labour will have a long look at itself and see where it wants to go in the future with a new leader while SF will ask themselves what went wrong once more.  They dropped by 10% in opinion polls in opposition. That mirrors Labour 6 years ago.  Will SF members give Gerry Adams his long service award and dispatch him back to his summer home in Donegal to write his memoires of the long war which he never took part in?

For Trotskyites, they’ve had an open goal to kick into for 8 years and still have not made the break through while a Healy Rae can pop up at a fortnights notice and win a seat in Kerry?  What does that say about the opposition and more importantly the voters? Once the ballots are counted, its then that the real questions will be asked. But will we get answers?