No room at the Inn for Verona

If it’s a clue that you’re looking for as to the timing of the next General Election, then look no further than this week's Wexford People. Buried away inside on a corner of the page is an ad for newly elected New Ross Councillor Brídin Murphy who is immediately launching her clinics in the area. Curious that Christmas week would be the time to launch yourself countywide on the political scene unless there was an ulterior motive.

You don’t have to go too far to find one. In my last blog I posed that Fine Gael would wait until Christmas before they make a decision on whether Verona Murphy will continue as their candidate for the General Election and that when they would make their move, the last person to know would be Verona.

Such events are rapidly coming to pass, the timing being brought forward as the likely date for the election moves forward from the late Spring to possibly before Easter due to the Dara Murphy affair which leaves the present government without a majority even relying on Fianna Fail to abstain. The likelihood of a motion of no confidence in Simon Harris in the even t of any future increase in trolley waiting times means that this government is at a national level running out of road.

This reality means that a decision on Verona Murphy had to be made sooner rather than later to give her successor a chance to get her name out there before the official off in the election. Nothing personal, that’s politics.

So Verona Murphy had to go, not for her views but because she released a video on poling day which blamed the media for the debacle. Fine Gael needed to replace her with a woman simply to maintain the gender balance. Bridin Murphy was the right person in the right place to take on the difficult job of winning a third seat for Fine Gael.

Verona Murphy will no doubt have something to say in her own time as to how she feels. The reality is that she was racially divisive and turned off many long time Fine Gael voters who voted for Labour.  This makes her unelectable. Call Fine Gael voters what you will, but they are no more or no less racist than the supporters of any other party. When the penny dropped at head office the search started behind Verona’s back for her replacement.

Cllr Murphy now has the unenviable task of trying to build on Verona Murphy’s vote. It remains to be seen how she will get on with that job given how voters disliked canvassers calling on dark cold nights in November.

The sacking of Verona will impact on the dynamic of the General Election campaign in Wexford.  Fine Gael in New Ross were divided on who would represent them at a local elections resulting in Pat Barden resigning to run his own successful independent campaign in the local elections. This division was temporarily healed by Verona Murphy. Consequently Pat Barden gave a strong endorsement of Verona Murphy after she issued her racist statements. Now however,  there is every chance of the uneasy peace now sundering once more.

We may well see a higher Fianna Fail vote in New Ross district as Fine Gael support drops in the forthcoming general election.  Could this mean that the ultimate winner is the Chairman of Wexford County Council; Michael Sheehan? Stranger things have happened and there is nothing as strange as politics.

As the year ends and many reflect on a time when there was no room in the inn for strangers it's most appropriate for Fine Gael to move on and away from candidates who spout racism.

Happy Christmas.

The Reckoning

And so when the dust settles there’s time to take stock. A rapid bruising by election where candidates were put under greater scrutiny than they would expect if they were to have run in a national election.

For each party the result will mean different things, but for most there will be a reckoning, just 6 months out from a general election, a time to make the necessary adjustments to ensure success where it counts.

Malcolm Byrne can reflect on a hard year where he won a nomination for Fianna Fail in the European election out of the blue. He ran in both it and the local election and then spent the later part knocking doors in the by election. At first hand he’s entitled to a honeymoon, but this is politics so expect the unexpected. His first action was to abstain in the vote of no confidence in Eoghan Murphy. Malcolm has been particularly critical of Eoghan Murphy as housing minister, so he can expect his own words to be thrown back at him. Elsewhere in Fianna Fail Michael Sheehan will begin his campaign to win a seat in the general election while Lisa McDonald will reflect on where to go after her stand off with Malcolm Byrne arising from her failure to be nominated.

Fine Gael will however see a greater reckoning than all the parties put together. Verona Murphy’s ill judged remarks and sense of victimhood played badly with many Fine Gael supporters. There are suggestions that she will be removed from the ticket by the party. However before she can be removed the party will need to find a replacement candidate. Who would take on the job? The election of Malcolm Byrne changes the political geography of the county. Gorey now has 2 deputies and will only likely elect one. Any potential FG candidate that might replace Verona Murphy would need to be carefully considered lest they impact negatively on the present FG TD’s. Who is the alternative candidate?

While Fine Gael may be inclined to drop Ms Murphy, it may prove easier said than done. Party HQ may be inclined to let the dust settle until early next year and see how things pan out then.

Labour will be the party most pleased with their performance. A strong vote in the town for George Lawlor. The constant jibes at the party in recent years that the party is dead are themselves buried. Brendan Howlin was nominated to run in the General Election almost 2 years ago. Nothing will change that. After almost 4 years as party leader he is beginning to see the party turn around. He’s entitled to the credit he was long denied.  Brendan is very clear that George Lawlor will be his eventual successor as Labour TD for Wexford. His strong performance underpins that prediction.

Sinn Fein’s campaign never inspired and in Wexford  townfew doors were knocked. For a party that prides itself on its political discipline ability to get boots on the ground this fact was most noticeable.  It appears to this writer that some in SF may have wanted their candidate to fail so he can be replaced before the General Election.  There will be a reckoning here too, however it will be done with all the transparency of an internal election for Vice President.

Which brings me to Aontú and the Greens. Both took huge slices of what was once the independent vote. Any increase in their support especially in rural areas came from independents. It is unlikely to go back there anytime soon if the 2 parties can organise. The ultimate losers in this election have been independents. 18 years on from electing an independent Wexford is back where it started.

When the wheel turns the full circle, the reckoning is not too far off either.