Saturday, 27 October 2018

Michael D rockin in the park for us!


It is rare that a Labour candidate wins on the first count. So congrats Michael D on winning another 7 years in the Arás. His values are my values, I believe Ireland will be a better place with Michael D as our president. He ran a positive campaign despite the questionable election and the personalised campain. Winning on the first count as a result is a victory. His visit to the south end of Wexford paid dividends in the end. He won 69% of the vote in The Faythe/Maudlintown.
But let’s look elsewhere for what else the polls tell  us. Gallagher was foolish to run again, Duffy was never at the races while Freeman has come in at a similar level to other candidate with a background in charity work in Presidential elections past.
But that leaves us with 2 other candidates whose level of support may raise eyebrows. Liadh Ni Riada is well down on what Martin McGuinness got as a first time SF candidate. Sinn Fein has built its credibility on strong campaigns where the members got out and worked hard for the candidate regardless, Ms Ní Riada had sunk a lot of money in terms of office and her interest in fisheries into Wexford. For all the Cork woman’s work, few members in Wexford lifted a finger in the last month on her behalf.  I never ran into any Sinn Fein canvassers, her name never came up on the doorstep. Doubtless when the European elections come round in 6 months Sinn Fein in Wexford will come out of their safe houses to press the flesh. Something tells me that this may be too late.
Most interesting is the huge vote for Peter Casey. If Casey lived in Ireland all his life, you’d understand it.  But he isn’t even tax resident here. His campaign was going from pillar to post until he had a pop at Travellers. I’d imagine that Casey has never met a traveller dividing as he does his life between Ireland, Australia and Atlanta. However he played to his understanding of prejudice, regardless of his ignorance.  Casey believed that he couldn’t be racist because in his view travellers couldn’t be a race.  And middle class people lapped this up.  More to the point when he attacked those on social welfare, it turned out that he didn’t know how much a person on jobseekers allowance received. However and as I pointed out to a SF tallyman today, if you add what the 3 dragons got today, it is equal to what Gallaher polled in 2011. Plus ca change, c’est la meme chose!
Figures suggest that turn-out was better in middle class areas than working class districts. Interesting that working class areas have been traditionally to the forefront in expressing anger at the ballot box. Is this a turning point? Are middle class people now taking to the ballot box to endorse Casey as a vector for their anger? What might this mean for Fine Gael and Dr Varadkar whose support for Michael D was luke warm at best?
What is interesting is that turn out figures in rural areas where travellers mostly live were much lower than urban areas where most travellers don’t live. So in essence we’ve seen an urban vote on a rural issue based on what?
Casey raised 2 issues about travellers. He said that they are living on other peoples land and that’s not true. Most travellers when surveyed say they want to live in a house. Casey also said that travellers are not tax compliant. There’s no evidence that travellers are any more or less tax compliant than your average settled person.
Casey didn’t run a ground campaign but used the media very cleverly to put himself in the frame. Where he goes from here politically is anyone’s guess.  What his success proves is that there is cohort that are prepared to ignore the political ignorance of a candidate if they pander to prejudice. The stratification that has occurred on the left looks set to be repeated on the political right in Ireland. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail need to sit up and take notice. So long as populism was seen to be on political left, it could be toyed with.  Now that it has infected the right, there is a clear threat and the parties that feel they have a right to govern need to address that, if only, from their perspective to avoid having to deal with SF after another inconclusive general election. I’m not so convinced that they are up to that challenge

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