Dr Varadkar’s mogodon route to Brexit

Perhaps it escaped your notice but we are already even if the present Dail lasts a complete 5 year term half way through its lifespan. Not too many people at the outset gave this arrangement much hope of getting this far. My own view of the suggestion that FF would pull the rug from under FG was that in the event of another indecisive election outcome, Fianna Fail would have few interested parties in working with them for fear of another self seeking collapse of any arrangement.

However , could it be that we are beginning to see  this administration unravelling at the edges? The disdain in office for independents by the government as the granny grant shambles and blatant local electioneering of the independents is only surpassed by the shenanigans in Fine Gael as Minister Eoghan Murphy hangs on a junior ministers every work waiting to see if she has confidence in him. Dr Varadkar frequently threatened general elections at the very thought of a reversal for FG. Now that it is almost upon us, he is away from his desk in the UN, the last place you’d push the nuclear button!  How very convenient?

The medium term sees a lot of difficult issues before the year is out. Dr Varadkar’s unfortunate use of the term bulletproof to describe the back stop arrangement seems to be premature. This government has dined out on their support from the remaining EU member states in the last 12 months. Michel Barnier is our negotiator on Brexit, we’ve nothing to fear.

That suggestion is both lazy and naive. We all want to believe it’ll be all right on the night, but it won’t. We need to accept that the British will leave the EU and it is most likely it’ll be a shambles because there is no majority in Westminster for any deal and no unanimity in the British government for the deal that could be done. Dr Vardakar’s ill judged walk to the Salzburg EU conference step by step alongside Emanuel Macron suggested to the British that he stood fore square with Macron’s criticism of the Brexiteers as the liars they are. Fine words but there is a time and a place for everything, and when they are heading out the door and there’s business to be done, slapping the Brits in the face does little for Ireland’s cause.

So in that scenario, reminding us that we’ve Michel Barnier in our corner won’t cut the mustard when March 29^th comes around. We need our government to tell us what they will do in the context of Britain crashing out with no deal over Brexit.

This should not be a surprise to anyone that it has come this far. Last week I came across a piece I wrote over 3 years ago in the Co Wexford Reporter. It pointed out where Britain was going and how it could impact on trade, the union that is the UK and Wexford. It pointed out our exposure to BREXIT. It should have been a wake up call, all of this is very obvious.

A series of papers from the UK set out areas of trade and commerce that will be affected from March 29^th next. We need to be strategic in this country. Access via air needs mutual recognition of pilot’s licenses. 25% of the worlds aircraft are either financed or licensed or registered in Ireland. A bus driving from Dublin to Donegal may not be allowed across the border since its driver’s license or insurance may not be valid after Brexit.

We need to sit down with the British in the areas affected by Brexit for which our administration has competence and start to work out how to smooth over the cracks. Our local TD in Wexford just happens to be the minister responsible for Insurance, Michael D’arcy. He needs to tell us how trucks, buses and air planes will still roll across the sea and the border post Brexit.

Instead we have the distraction of a government looking towards the back half of the Dáil and the task of re-election. A Brexit shambles here may well shake the government out of its slumber, but will it be too late?

Time for Dr Varadkar to do some heavy lifting.

Things are getting curious and curiouser.

Lewis Carroll would be proud of Dr Leo Varadkar.  The best way to understand this country is to use a looking glass.  When this week Brendan Howlin stepped into the debate about when the new president would be inaugurated, I thought it strange.  We have a presidential commission, we can inaugurate a president on the day or as close as possible to November 11^th. That could have allowed our president to attend centenary events to mark the end of WW1 as acting President and come home to be inaugurated on November 12^th.

But November 12^th was already in the diary for Donald Trump. So we’ll get the president inaugurated in the wee small hours of November 11^th rushed off to Flanders Fields and home to tug at the forelock of one of the world’s great misogynists, bigots and liars.

Exactly a week ago, social media was wall to wall with FG supporters clapping Dr Varadkar on the back as to how well he’d done by putting the pope in his box over historic child abuse cases in Ireland. The Donald well be a much bigger fish to fry.

The real measure of Leo’s thoroughly modern Ireland will be if he has the political guts to tell Trump as he once promised what’s what in an international context. But nobody is holding their breathe on this one.

Because at the back of it we all know that Dr Varadkar is the luckiest of our Taoisigh ever. He has the EU negotiating for him, he has a divided opposition and thinks he is popular. How anyone could get to be Taoiseach without serving in an economic ministry is unusual. Sure what could possibly go wrong?

His problem might be that when luck runs out as it eventually must, it runs out like a light and is gone before you know it. There will be demonstrations and it will negatively impact on Varadkar’s popularity. And all the blarney and ballyhoo won’t hide it this time.

It never does, not even in wonderland.

Time for us to grow up when it comes to the bare truth

Vico Road, now there’s a blast from the past.  In the day there was a lot of controversy as a legal eagle with an address there tried his best to hold on to the plush property that he’d put up as collateral against his property portfolio. The banks no longer respect privilege or entitlement as they moved to recover their pound of flesh. That didn’t stop many populists who rushed to protest as the bailiffs arrived.

When the fuss all died down Vico Road in Killiney returned to being an aged bastion of all that is middle class about Ireland. Until of course earlier this year when it was proposed that a small section of beach should be reserved for naturists by the local council. The locals are by all accounts aghast at the prospects of the riff raff arriving down to a little cove to get their kit off and to enjoy the sun in our unpredictable climate.

It seems that they are concerned that peeping toms with high powered binoculars will disrupt the quiet of the leafy suburbs.  The reality however is that any peeping tom who fancies a cheap thrill can 24/7 go online to view enough flesh on adult websites.

So, little of this phases me anymore.  I smile when i read how Victorian and prurient values still exist in some people’s minds. For decades naturists areas on beaches have been accepted on the continent. People there consider it as normal. Peeping Tom’s don’t seem to have discouraged topless sunbathing there.  Indeed Irish sun worshippers leave their discretion at the departure lounge as they fly abroad to top up the all over tan on the Med.

If Irish people abroad can use clothing optional beaches, why not at home? Why not in Co Wexford? Ireland for its own conservative reasons down through the years has resisted ear marking areas along our coast as clothing optional.  As recently as 2 years ago our then Mayor vehemently opposed any suggestion that a section of Wexford’s coast should be designated clothing optional on the grounds that if he walked down Main St naked he’d expect to be arrested. To be fair to him, he is right. Most people would expect an arrest of anyone who strips off on Main St in any town anywhere.

But that was not what was proposed. Wexford has 220Km of mostly sandy and in many cases secluded coastline. Surely it is possible to find a small area secluded area to facilitate naturists?  I doubt if there are many naturists in the country, let alone the county. But perhaps it’s time for Wexford County Council to show a bit of leadership and consider areas that might be suitable for clothing optional sun worshippers and put it out to public consultation?

7 more years.

Séan Gallagher, there’s a name to conjure up surprises. He’s back and ready to pick up from where he left off, Soon county councils will hear the patter of tiny feet as he appeals to councillors to nominate him to run for the Arás. He won’t be on his own. Gerard Craughwell seems to have changed tack and rather than look for 20 independent members of the Oireachtas to nominate him, he’s going on the council route too in his bid.

And that leaves Sinn Fein who will by the week end set out who they will run as President Michael D Higgins nominates himself to run for a second term. Opinion polls this far out from an election are unpredictable.

 Election 18 will be a very different campaign to the last one.  7 years ago FF was in disarray and unwilling to openly nominate and so it was that Séan Gallagher almost made it to the Arás until fate intervened. Gallagher will have no problem getting the nomination from FF controlled councils are there are many more now than there were when he first ran. Where he may have problems is how he is perceived by the electorate. His campaign fell apart when he inadvertently used the word envelope as he defended his role as a Fianna Fail moneyman. People are often forgiving of a person’s personal failings but when it comes to clumsy use of language in a debate he may discover that his support is not as high as before.

Craughwell comes across as angry in the media. He called on the President to clarify his position, when he does, he claims it’s an establishment stitch up. Michael D Higgins has been called a lot in the past, but establishment is a new one on me. I wonder how many of President Higgins speeches Craughwell reads?  His speech in Wexford in 2011 on the anniversary of the execution of James Connolly when he unveiled the lock out gates was hardly an off the shelf 2 minute routine. Rather it was a critique of the established values which brought us to where we are today. Likewise his tribute to Fidel Castro when he died stood apart from the response of all other European heads of state. His embrace of dialectic and intellect is the polar opposite of what I’ve always understood the establishment to be.  But it suits Craughwell to portray Higgins as establishment rather than make his own case as to how his presidency could be different. I don’t know what Craughwell will stand for if he is elected.

Sinn Fein simply want to run because they have plenty of money and will seize the chance to run in any election where neither Fianna Fail (officially) nor Fine Gael will field a candidate.  SF tell us they want to have a conversation about women, travellers, minorities, marginalised. Where they get a candidate from each one of those backgrounds is their challenge. I note that after 34 years of Gerry Adams, SF didn’t have a conversation within its own party as to who the new President should be. The good news is that they think the rest of us should have a conversation and in time they will give us a candidate to facilitate this. Let’s be frank about it, it’s not about winning for SF, its all about having their name on a ballot paper and poster for 4 weeks during the campaign.

For what it’s worth, I believe the President should be either an experienced politician or someone who has legal experience. Why? Because the Presidency is 2 things; a president whose values reflect where society is when the President is chosen and also someone who may need to make legal decisions that impact on the Oireachtas or our courts. Simply being able to spot a gap in the market for an investment doesn’t give you that ability. 

That’s what the job should be. But in keeping with previous Presidential elections you can bet your bottom dollar that this one will be as dirty as ever. That leaves just one credible candidate for me. For Labour, Higgins winning another term added to the repeal of the 8th will mark a turning point. But nothing comes easy. I'll be buying a pair of shoes , there's a lot of waking ahead of me.

Wexford boundaries put shape on the Local Election

At long last we have the boundaries for each district in Wexford for next year’s local elections. Normally local elections evolve into a mini general election where the people use the ballot box to send a message to the government. They did this when I was elected and they did it when I was beaten.

At first glance it may well look as though the pattern may repeat itself. However think forward and perhaps that’s not the way it may turn out. We will have a Presidential election later this year. It is clear that Gerard Craughwell will get enough support among independents for a tilt at the Arás. If he runs you can rest assured that SF will not let him off on his own.

We’ll have a Presidential election this autumn. Presidential Elections are allocated a 60 day campaign. So at the start of September, we’ll know who may be nominated, by Halloween, we’ll know the result.

During that period we’ll have a budget. Could it be defeated and can a general election be constitutionally called during a presidential election campaign? So the budget will pass and then the Finance and Social Welfare Acts will give effect to the budget changes. That will take until Christmas.

But once we enter the new year, all bets are off. Fianna Fail will see themselves out of the Confidence and Supply Deal and any issue could and will trigger an election. So presuming there will be an election in March next year, bear in mind how long it can take to form a government.

Easter next year will be later than usual. Once Easter is over we are into Local and European Elections. With new ministers barely in their new jobs, there’ll be little for the electorate to give any new government a kicking over by the time the new boundaries come into play on polling day next year.

Or at least that’s what Fine Gael councillors reckon. This will be a local election which will favour incumbents for many reasons. Local elections will be about local issues. Any outgoing councillor will of course have the ear of officials and will have an enormous advantage in that election. There may well be an election weariness by the time the local elections come around so turn out may well be much lower than average.

And when you look at the boundaries it further reinforces the notion that the status quo will prevail. The decision to ring fence Wexford as one ward makes sense. However introducing Clongeen into the district makes no sense. Including the name of Kilmore in the entire district sounds peculiarly quaint.  This ward will be most hotly contested. 5 outgoing councillors will be joined by one councillor moving from New Ross district and Paul Codd, the son of the late Pat Codd, Mr Taghmon.  Something has to give.

Wexford will have 7 seats. Social media discussion of that ward will assure you that all 14 candidates will win. I’ve yet to see that happen in any election.

Gorey district has been taken apart in this redraw. The village of Ballycanew is familiar to most people from Wexford who take the direct road to Gorey. You’d hardly get back into 5^th gear having driven through the village before you decelerate once more to get onto the motorway. Bizarrely Bally canew and its hinterland are now considered part of Enniscorthy. Gorey has dropped to 6 seats which is just one seat more than Kilmore ward has been allocated.

Enniscorthy will comprise 2 wards with one centred on the town but also a coastal ward at Kilmuckridge. New Ross has also lost a seat as well as some territory to Wexford. Taghmon has returned to its rightful place in Wexford District. But the real downside for Wexford ward is that the 7 councillors it elects won't have officials ring fenced to work for the town but the 6 elected in Gorey District will have engineers and a dedicated secretariat. Why? Because Wexford will be a ward while Gorey will be a district.

So that’s the territory and the context of the redraw. What I can’t do now is predict the issues in each ward that will elect our next council. Let’s hope it as election that debates ideas and local issues. 2014 was all about candidates pretending they could reduce property charges, rates, and abolish water charges while giving a better service.  A weary public bought that populism. There’s no doubt that the electorate may not wish to punish those who won using this line, however let’s hope that some of the new councillors will hold them to account.

Yesford!

In the beginning there was the 8^th and the 8^th became law and dwelt amongst us. In the end it was dispatched in Wexford by almost 50,000 voters.  It’s a turning point for Ireland. I got the feeling at the start of this week that as the week progressed the more the gap between yes and no widened. Last night I predicted to some on our Together for Yes campaign that the gap will be significantly wider than we might dare think.

In the end it was over 23,000 votes. The count started at 9AM in St Joseph’s Community Centre in Wexford. When the council officials advised that they would open 25 ballot boxes each time it was clear to both Yes and No camps that we didn’t have enough to tally.

Former Senator Jim Walsh approached me and proposed to jointly tally. We shook hands and agreed to share figures. I’ll say one thing about Jim Walsh, personally he’s as decent as the day is long. I’d agree with him on some issues and on social issues we’d diverge. He told me he is bitterly disappointed with the result. I told him I know how it feels to lose in an election.  I also pointed out that

into the future that another Dáil decided to change the law to be more restrictive, that is the right of that generation.

And so it was to the tally, By and large it was a small group although one person from the No side told me I was a hypocrite for going to church as I was an abortionist. My colleague Cllr George Lawlor was rounded on for singing at church ceremonies while the luckless Minister Paul Kehoe was rounded on by a prominent No campaigner as he left the count with his young daughter and was verbally abused for legislating for murder.

By lunchtime it was all over. 190 boxes opened and tallied. A small crowd awaited the declaration and the result was Repeal 49,935 and to retain 23,069.

So where do we go from here? On reflection it is the end of a liberalising journey for Ireland since the 1990’s when homosexuality was decriminalised, divorce introduced and contraception regularised among other issues.   But the Iona Institute won’t be going away. They will be lobbying for the laws to be softened and no group will do that more expertly than Iona. Indeed lobbying a small group such as Oireachtas members might be more efficient and effective for Iona and its supporters than the wider public in a social media age.

The signs were there that no wasn’t doing well. Yesterday all the trending on twitter was hashtags that supported repeal. How could the No campaign that had targeted social media to spend its money have let that happen? The row between different no groups as to who’d represent them in a tv debate and the ban by google on advertising all undermined the credibility of the No side. However it was the behaviour of some of their canvassers on doorsteps and tearing down Yes posters which upset people who were genuinely in the middle.

If this means that despite all the spending on social media and voter manipulation voters are rejecting the politics of spin and negativity we may have many reasons into the future to thank the electorate for their decision today.

There’s a lot of people who worked hard on the campaign. I’ll mention a few, Shane McAnally, and Doris Murphy who energised us all. Aislinn Wallace played a blinder. I know when you start to name drop that in a diverse campaign like this one, you don’t mention someone and you leave someone out. There would have been no campaign without them. In Wexford a lot of independent minded people turned out to canvas, many for the first time. Labour, Sinn Fein and People Before Profit all fought the good fight with one FG member and that was that.

50,000 reasons to be glad that we live in a democracy. That is the alpha and omega of politics.

Repeal with zeal!

So with less than a week left to polling day in the repeal referendum, where stands Wexford? I’ll out myself at the start as a committed Yes voter.  While that’ll give a complexion to where I’m coming from, I’d like to think it only colours my thinking but not what I’ll write.

The last week has really seen the campaign emerge into the media on a daily basis. About 2 weeks ago I feared that it might become conflated with the cervical cancer scandal and that it might become the catalyst around which the electorate might turn on an incompetent Department of Health and the track record of previous ministers there.  From canvassing in Wexford it’s clear that people are distinguishing between the two, the issue of cervical cancer hasn’t emerged on the doorstep.

Last week’s decision by Facebook and Google in relation to advertising hasn’t impacted either on the thinking of the electorate. Am I the only one who ignores ads on Youtube and skips to the programme? Possibly not!

What has struck a cord especially with young first time voters is that they may well come out in large numbers to vote. My own experience is that many young voters want to vote Yes and men, especially of my own age, need to have the matter explained and might be reluctant to vote on the day. Women have made their minds up long ago on the matter and I don’t think I’ve met any woman who is a don’t know.

Beyond that there is a curious geography about the canvas. People who live in houses that were built in the last 20 years tend to be Yes. The No message would be stronger in areas of Wexford that were built in the 1960’s. And surprisingly older established areas in Wexford built in the 50’s or earlier seem to be strongly Yes.  Irish of Eastern European origin may well oppose repeal in large numbers.

It’s clear that the urban area of Wexford will vote Yes. Rural areas may not be so clear cut. The No campaign only seems visible on Saturday afternoon in the Bull Ring. Aside from that, little has been seen of it so far around the town.

Has it been respectful? Canvassers on the Yes side are keen to talk to someone if they don’t know. If the person on the doorstep has made up their mind either way, then there’s no point in going further. They may tell you if they are a Yes. If they’ve made  their minds up it’s a case of move on to another doorstep to search out the elusive undecided voter.

Personally I’d say that the level of abuse is on a par with what I got in 1983 when I knocked doors in my own home area.  One notable incident in the last week happened while dropping my Labour leaflets in Castlebridge. A man with a strong Munster accent confronted me on the path in the estate and called me a murderer as he handed back my leaflet. The Labour party, according to him, was finished at the next election and he wouldn’t vote for me. I replied that I don’t want his vote as I won’t represent him and that he won’t call me that on a public street.

I haven’t been canvassed by the no side but the other night I met a woman with a Save the 8^th badge who asked me why I supported repeal. We engaged and she seemed more genuinely curious as to why I think the way so I explained to her my opposition since 1983. We said our pieces mutually with interest and both sides listened. And that was that, wished her well and we both moved off.

At the back of it all I can understand the Save the 8^th and Love Both position. It is clear, whether you like it or not. They are straight up with where they are coming from.  What I have a problem with is the increasing political view that you can say nothing and ignore the electorate as they consider a really important issue  That suggests lack of interest and courage.

There’s still a few days to go.  Attention deserves to shift to our 3 TD’s who’ve yet to make up their minds as to how they’ll vote. Ministers Michael D’arcy, Paul Kehoe and James Browne have yet to reveal how they intend to vote, presumably for fear of having to show leadership on the issue and to explain what they think to their supporters and voters. Cabinet ministers have access to significantly more information and position papers when legislation is being drafted and discussed in cabinet. The cabinet agreed to the legislation and the referendum. And yet there is a stony silence from the Government deputies. If the referendum is lost in Wexford, someone will have to take responsibility.

It is the least the electorate deserve.