Dr Varadkar’s mogodon route to Brexit

Perhaps it escaped your notice but we are already even if the present Dail lasts a complete 5 year term half way through its lifespan. Not too many people at the outset gave this arrangement much hope of getting this far. My own view of the suggestion that FF would pull the rug from under FG was that in the event of another indecisive election outcome, Fianna Fail would have few interested parties in working with them for fear of another self seeking collapse of any arrangement.

However , could it be that we are beginning to see  this administration unravelling at the edges? The disdain in office for independents by the government as the granny grant shambles and blatant local electioneering of the independents is only surpassed by the shenanigans in Fine Gael as Minister Eoghan Murphy hangs on a junior ministers every work waiting to see if she has confidence in him. Dr Varadkar frequently threatened general elections at the very thought of a reversal for FG. Now that it is almost upon us, he is away from his desk in the UN, the last place you’d push the nuclear button!  How very convenient?

The medium term sees a lot of difficult issues before the year is out. Dr Varadkar’s unfortunate use of the term bulletproof to describe the back stop arrangement seems to be premature. This government has dined out on their support from the remaining EU member states in the last 12 months. Michel Barnier is our negotiator on Brexit, we’ve nothing to fear.

That suggestion is both lazy and naive. We all want to believe it’ll be all right on the night, but it won’t. We need to accept that the British will leave the EU and it is most likely it’ll be a shambles because there is no majority in Westminster for any deal and no unanimity in the British government for the deal that could be done. Dr Vardakar’s ill judged walk to the Salzburg EU conference step by step alongside Emanuel Macron suggested to the British that he stood fore square with Macron’s criticism of the Brexiteers as the liars they are. Fine words but there is a time and a place for everything, and when they are heading out the door and there’s business to be done, slapping the Brits in the face does little for Ireland’s cause.

So in that scenario, reminding us that we’ve Michel Barnier in our corner won’t cut the mustard when March 29^th comes around. We need our government to tell us what they will do in the context of Britain crashing out with no deal over Brexit.

This should not be a surprise to anyone that it has come this far. Last week I came across a piece I wrote over 3 years ago in the Co Wexford Reporter. It pointed out where Britain was going and how it could impact on trade, the union that is the UK and Wexford. It pointed out our exposure to BREXIT. It should have been a wake up call, all of this is very obvious.

A series of papers from the UK set out areas of trade and commerce that will be affected from March 29^th next. We need to be strategic in this country. Access via air needs mutual recognition of pilot’s licenses. 25% of the worlds aircraft are either financed or licensed or registered in Ireland. A bus driving from Dublin to Donegal may not be allowed across the border since its driver’s license or insurance may not be valid after Brexit.

We need to sit down with the British in the areas affected by Brexit for which our administration has competence and start to work out how to smooth over the cracks. Our local TD in Wexford just happens to be the minister responsible for Insurance, Michael D’arcy. He needs to tell us how trucks, buses and air planes will still roll across the sea and the border post Brexit.

Instead we have the distraction of a government looking towards the back half of the Dáil and the task of re-election. A Brexit shambles here may well shake the government out of its slumber, but will it be too late?

Time for Dr Varadkar to do some heavy lifting.