The Gorey Details

Wexford is Leinster’s biggest county. It’s a constituency that has existed since the early years of the state. While geographically it remains the same, in terms of its voters it is a very different place to what it was at the start of the century. Voters at the south end of the county gravitate towards Waterford for services. Those in Gorey often travel to Dublin. Travelling time is less and many Dubliners have moved south to find a more affordable home. A walk around Gorey gives you an interesting insight into the local economy. Plenty of take aways, restaurants, bars for socialising. The boutiques, coffee shops and business on the main street.

However Gorey has planning issues. Retail has moved to the fringe of the town centre while housing is a long walk away. For commuters arriving late home from work, there’s the added nuisance of the need to drive to Tesco or Dunnes if the fridge is empty. It’s a town with more traffic than comparable towns in the county.

But when it comes to politics, the D’arcy name is synonymous with the town. The town centre and the agricultural hinterland has been good to Fine Gael.  That was until last November when Malcolm Byrne won the bye election for Fianna Fail. Michael D’arcy faces into this election with the challenge of his near neighbour for the lion’s share of the local vote. North of Gorey there is no large urban area. If both Byrne and D’arcy are to succeed they need to battle for local dominance and move south into James Browne’s bailiwick.

There is no other significant candidate in the local area. The Green Candidate withdrew despite her good showing.  The party has installed a replacement however their website gives no details. Draw your own conclusions as to how the party regard her chances.

Gorey will elect one TD. But could it possibly elect 2? Opinion polls show that Fine Gael may be losing votes, however it is as to, who, where and how much is lost that may decide whether it is D’arcy of Kehoe or both is elected.

Conventional wisdom suggests Fine Gael will win 2 seats. However, consider this. Fine Gael according to one poll is losing votes to Sinn Fein. In 2016, Paul Kehoe just about held on by 50 votes from Sinn Fein’s johnny Mythen.  He is vulnerable to further vote loss and while Fine Gael may be losing votes over all, were he to proportionally lose more than Kehoe, Kehoe could be eliminated but electing D’arcy on his transfers. There’s a school of thought that it may be Kehoe under more pressure than Michael D’arcy. Kehoe also sees Verona Murphy on the prowl in the South West where he usually performs well.  That scenario would see Johnny Mythen take the second seat in Enniscorthy District instead of Paul Kehoe.

Fanciful? Maybe but it is something to bear in mind as the count progresses. Malcolm Byrne would prefer Kehoe to hang in and to see D’arcy under pressure in the hope that a D’arcy elimination will send Gorey transfers his way to elect him.

That’s politics, candidates spend all day wondering how to get elected and the rest of the day trying to see how they can stay elected.